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Post by lostabroad2 on Sept 8, 2012 22:17:26 GMT -5
I'm probably going to regret posting this again, but what the heck. You're all mild mannered people who enjoy a brain teaser and don't get upset...right? The Monty Hall Problem You are a contestant on a Game Show. You have reached the final! You now have to pick one of 3 identical doors. Behind one of the doors is the star prize - a car. Behind each of the other 2 doors is a booby prize - a goat. The Game Show Host will be told by the producer where they all are after you have chosen your door. Before you can open the door of your choice the Host stops you and opens a different door from the one you have chosen. The door he opens will always reveal a goat. He then offers you the choice of either sticking with your original choice or of swapping to the remaining unopened door. Which strategy gives you the best chance of winning the car?         A) You should always swap. Your chance of winning the car will be higher if you swap.         B) Swapping or sticking makes no difference. They are both equally likely to have the car.         C) You should stick with your choice. Your chance of winning the car will be lower if you swap. @the moderators. I'd like to leave this separate from the Brain Teaser thread for 10-14 days. That way people can see it and have a go at it. After 10-14 days i'll transfer any/all posts to the Brain Teaser thread so that all the related posts are together.
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Post by lostabroad2 on Sept 8, 2012 22:18:25 GMT -5
There's no bait, no psychology and no trick. Please think about the question and pick the answer you think is right. Don't be upset if you get it wrong, (you'll be in good company). I won't post the answer - i'll post a link to a video explanation. Please think about it before going to the answer.
If you're still struggling to understand it then let me know and i'll send you a pm that will hopefully shed some light on the matter.
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Post by Shaggzfate on Sept 8, 2012 22:40:09 GMT -5
Before I watch the Video, my answer is B. If you remove one door from contention your chances are always greater.
Thanks for explaining who monty hall is... was scratching my head with it.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2012 22:44:52 GMT -5
I picked A before answering because I knew B was the most logical answer.
I don't agree with the answer though.
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Post by plax on Sept 8, 2012 23:17:39 GMT -5
Picked B, but can honestly see the choice of A.
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Post by awesomeace on Sept 10, 2012 21:16:47 GMT -5
It's a) The 1st time I watched the video I didn't get it, think I got it this time
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Post by 101mitch on Sept 11, 2012 17:01:37 GMT -5
The dude is wrong 100%. The way he explains everything makes you think you should swap. That is the REAL mind trick in that problem.
Lets say the car was on the right. I choose the center door. As of now there is a 33% chance of the car being in any of the doors, 66% a goat in each door. The host then opens the left door. Here is where the guy goes wrong. He SAYS that the probability of it is still 66% and 33%. But because a goat got shown the goats probability would go down and the cars would go up. Making it 50-50.
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Post by MarchingOn on Sept 11, 2012 17:34:39 GMT -5
I got the right answer but I wouldn't swap. I would stick with my gut. And I think my gut is right more than 66% of the time! This. Always go with your gut feeling.
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Post by Jindred on Sept 11, 2012 18:12:04 GMT -5
It finally makes sense! I get it! The math checks out, what the video is explaining is true!
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Post by Jancey on Sept 11, 2012 20:18:45 GMT -5
(A)You should swap. Your initial choice gives you a 33% chance of winning the car. Then he opens a door with a goat. If you stay, your'e at a 50% of winning the car, but if you swap, you've increased your odds to 66.7%
I haven't watched the video yet, but I'm about to. I didn't come up with this on my own though. It's what I've heard before. It doesn't make too much sense to me, but maybe the video will help
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