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Post by 101mitch on Sept 13, 2012 14:33:00 GMT -5
Why would it still be 1/52?? It would be 1/2!!
And BTW- You can't look at it this card vs these 51 cards. Each card in there has a 1/52 chance of being the queen. When you pick a dud, the remaining cards then go to a 1/51, then 1/50, etc. Until you get to 2 cards left. It would then be 1/2.
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Post by Shaggzfate on Sept 13, 2012 15:45:37 GMT -5
Ghostface-Mitch (Because the killer in scream name is ghostface btw)
I agree 100%. Me and LAB have talked about it and had the same conversation in PM. Honestly I think it is partly a psychological side to this as you are in the same mind set as me 100% and so have a few others. It'd be interesting to find out more what differentiates us and the ones that see the problem the same way as its purposed. Honestly I don't feel either side is right or wrong, its all a view point. Maybe its us skeptics that look for it to be 100% and dont go all out. Who knows.
BTW I subscribe to the DTA attitude. When it comes down to it, I gage and measure everyone I meet till i get a good judge on their being, if that helps any.
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Post by lostabroad2 on Sept 13, 2012 15:49:45 GMT -5
If you're not going to swap then the 50 wrong cards don't need to be revealed. You have 1 card to your left, 1 card to your right, and 50 wrong cards in the middle of the table. The probability of the the Queen being in the 50 wrong cards is zero. What is the probability of your original choice being the Queen of Hearts? What is the probability of it being the Ace of Clubs?
If you accept that the 50 unidentified losing cards have zero chance of including the Queen of Hearts - which is 100% correct - then consider this proposition: You can keep your original card or swap to having the card to your right AND the 50 unidentified wrong cards. Adding the additional 50 wrong cards to the swap option increases the chances of that option being correct by zero. Is the originally chosen card now a 1 in 52 chance or a 1 in 2 chance?
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Post by 101mitch on Sept 13, 2012 15:57:27 GMT -5
Ghostface-Mitch (Because the killer in scream name is ghostface btw) I agree 100%. Me and LAB have talked about it and had the same conversation in PM. Honestly I think it is partly a psychological side to this as you are in the same mind set as me 100% and so have a few others. It'd be interesting to find out more what differentiates us and the ones that see the problem the same way as its purposed. Honestly I don't feel either side is right or wrong, its all a view point. Maybe its us skeptics that look for it to be 100% and dont go all out. Who knows. BTW I subscribe to the DTA attitude. When it comes down to it, I gage and measure everyone I meet till i get a good judge on their being, if that helps any. Alright I accept this answer. We are now good. lol I just need to get LAB to say something like this.
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Post by lostabroad2 on Sept 13, 2012 16:53:05 GMT -5
When I first encountered the puzzle I was as adamant that the answer was wrong as several other people are. When i've sat down and asked people this question in a 1-on-1 environment EVERY SINGLE ONE of them has sworn blind that the answer is B. My brother still refuses to accept the answer and he has 2 University Degrees in Accountancy. I honestly do understand that people think and believe that it makes no difference if you swap. Only when you try the 52 card game or go through the maths will you change your opinion. The honest and truthful answer to the problem is A. Swapping genuinely does improve your chances of winning in this scenario.
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Post by Jancey on Sept 13, 2012 18:59:16 GMT -5
It really does...think about it..when you pick a door...you only have a 33% chance of getting the car...when he reveals one of the goats, your odds are now 50-50 but your initial choice only had 33% chance of being the car...revealing the goat doesnt change your initial odds of 33%. So it's more likely than not that the other one is the car. I see what you're saying mitch that now it's 50-50 and essentially it IS. But technically you still only have a 33% chance that you picked the car in the first place...meaning that the other door has higher odds of being the car.
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Post by Jancey on Sept 13, 2012 19:05:16 GMT -5
And LAB's deck of cards scenarios points it out perfectly...your odds of picking the Queen of Hearts is 1-52. He takes way 1 card from the deck and places it next to yours and tells you one is the Queen of Hearts...the odds of the card you picked being the Queen of Hearts is 1 in 52...once he gives you the option of the 2 cards it does NOT make it 50-50...because odds are in favor of the card you picked NOT being the Queen of Hearts...so it is more likely the card he pulled out of the deck is the Queen..see what I'm saying? It's the same scenario with the car...you only had a 33% chance of picking the car...he takes one goat out...the odds aren't in your favor that you picked the car initially...so it is much more likely that the other door has the car
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