Post by Juggs on Nov 15, 2014 17:02:58 GMT -5
This sentence needs to never be said again.
As mock draft season is starting again, I want to reiterate something I say every year on this forum, and make it its own thread this year so that it lasts longer in peoples minds. I saw people saying this on Beast's mock today which is what inspired this.
In round 1 TALENT >>>>>>>>> NEED
Let's look at 2014:
Texans: Biggest need = QB. Took an 4-3 DE that didn't fit their system. Talent pick.
Rams: Biggest need = S/WR/QB. Took the "most talented" (so it was thought) OT prospect and moved around the whole line to make it work. Talent pick.
Jags: Biggest need = QB. Took a QB, and it was considered a shocking selection and a reach. Need pick.
Bills: Biggest need = OL/QB/S. Mortgaged the future for a WR. Talent pick.
Raiders: Biggest need = everything. Literally, everything. Took the BPA. Talent pick.
Atlanta: Biggest need = pass rusher. Took a more talented LT. Talent pick.
Tampa Bay: Biggest need = QB, defense. Took a WR based on talent. Talent pick.
Clevleand: Biggest need = WR, QB, HB, LB. Took the classes top CB prospect. Talent pick.
Vikings: Biggest need = QB, CB, DT, WR. Took a pass rusher based on talent. Talent pick.
Lions: Biggest need = CB, S, WR, OL. Took a tight end that nobody predicted. Talent pick.
Titans: Biggest need = CB, pass rush, QB, HB. Took a LT when they had an all pro LT. Talent pick.
New York Giants. Biggest need = pass rush, TE, WR. Took a WR. This pick met a big need, so I'll call it a need pick, although it wasn't the biggest.
St. Louis Rams. Biggest need = S/WR/QB. Took a falling DT. Talent pick.
Chicago Bears. Biggest need = CB. They took one. Need pick.
Pittsburgh Steelers. Biggest need = CB, S, Pass rush. Took an OLB. This pick fit a need, but they passed very good prospects at bigger needs. Talent pick.
Cowboys. Biggest need = DEFENSE. Took an offensive guard which shocked everyone. Talent pick and it was a great one.
Ravens. Biggest need = OT. They passed that up for a position that fit another need. I'll give this one. Need pick.
Jets. Biggest need = CB (it was at the time according to talk), QB, WR. Took a safety who isn't even starting. Talent pick. Also an awful pick, which I said at the time. On the subject, I think we can already call him a bust who got selected b/c of the proximity fallacy.
Dolphins. Biggest need = OT. They took an OT. Need pick.
Saints. Biggest need = I don't really know what they needed at the time, I rarely watch NO. MarchingOn what was the biggest need going into the draft?
Packers. Biggest need = TE/Pass rush. Took a S. Talent pick.
Browns. Biggest need = QB. Took a QB. Need pick, but notice they did so with their second pick, and this post is really about what teams do with their first.
Chiefs. Biggest need = Oline. Took a pass rusher that wasn't even a starter. Talent pick, and another mistake by the way I still think.
Bengals. Biggest need = I'm not sure what their biggest need was, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't CB since they had Adam Jones and Leon Hall. Talent pick.
Chargers. Biggest need = CB. They took my favorite CB in the draft, who is outplaying his stock as I said he would. Need pick.
Eagles. Biggest need = I'm not sure. EagleDomiKnation what was the biggest need coming in to the draft? Was it really OLB I don't feel like it was.
Cardinals. Biggest need = QB, OL, LB. Took a saftey that surprised everyone but has worked out well. Talent pick.
Panthers. Biggest need = OT, WR, CB. Took a WR. Need pick.
Pats. Biggest need = OL, WR. Took a DT who they knew would only rotate in. Talent pick.
49ers. Biggest need = WR, OLB (they were talking about replacing Aldon at the time). They took a safety. Talent pick.
Broncos. Biggest need = I'm not sure, but CB definitely was a need. I'll give this one. Need pick.
Vikings. Biggest need = QB. Took a QB BUT just like Cleveland they addressed the need with the second pick, which this article isn't about. Need pick.
Let's total that up, ignoring New Orleans and Philly for now since I don't remember what they needed at the time.
Talent picks 20, need picks 10.
So to recap, teams ignored their biggest need and in many cases, all of their needs entirely to draft guys based on talent. When Beast or I or CoC or anyone else mocks a player to your team that they don't need or isn't a desperate need, don't ridicule the mock drafter for that. Because they're right. The majority of teams look at talent first, second, third, fourth and fifth and consider what positions they need help at only after that. In later rounds, you see needs get addressed more often. I'm sure if you dissect the second round you'll find a more balanced breakdown.
Why is this? It's because General Managers want to keep their jobs, not make their team look better on paper. If the GM can show the owner one great player they got in each draft, it's very hard for them to get fired. If on the other hand they ignore great players to fill needs, they're getting axed for sure. Look at my Titans. We're not a talented team, we've been bad to mediocre for a while because of a lack of talent. But our GM has has his job for five years and isn't even on the hot seat. Why?
2010: Derrick Morgan and Alteraun Verner. We had Jason Jones and Jason McCourty.
2011: Jurrell Casey. We had Albert Haynesworth
2012: Kendall Wright. We had Nate Washington and Kenny Britt.
2013: Chance Warmack, Justin Hunter. We had Andy Levitre and Kendall Wright/Nate Washington.
2014: Already looks like Taylor Lewan is going to be a superstar one day, same with Avery Williamson. We had Michael Roos and Wesley Woodyard.
Just getting one very good to elite player in every draft will keep the GM alive. Reaching for needs doesn't do that. DON'T GIVE MOCK DRAFTERS SHIT FOR EXPRESSING HOW THE NFL REALLY WORKS.
One last note: This doesn't mean you shouldn't forecast a team picking a need in the first. The best teams find superstars at the positions they need. Needs are still a good guideline, but they are held WAY to sacred by fans, especially on this forum.
As mock draft season is starting again, I want to reiterate something I say every year on this forum, and make it its own thread this year so that it lasts longer in peoples minds. I saw people saying this on Beast's mock today which is what inspired this.
In round 1 TALENT >>>>>>>>> NEED
Let's look at 2014:
Texans: Biggest need = QB. Took an 4-3 DE that didn't fit their system. Talent pick.
Rams: Biggest need = S/WR/QB. Took the "most talented" (so it was thought) OT prospect and moved around the whole line to make it work. Talent pick.
Jags: Biggest need = QB. Took a QB, and it was considered a shocking selection and a reach. Need pick.
Bills: Biggest need = OL/QB/S. Mortgaged the future for a WR. Talent pick.
Raiders: Biggest need = everything. Literally, everything. Took the BPA. Talent pick.
Atlanta: Biggest need = pass rusher. Took a more talented LT. Talent pick.
Tampa Bay: Biggest need = QB, defense. Took a WR based on talent. Talent pick.
Clevleand: Biggest need = WR, QB, HB, LB. Took the classes top CB prospect. Talent pick.
Vikings: Biggest need = QB, CB, DT, WR. Took a pass rusher based on talent. Talent pick.
Lions: Biggest need = CB, S, WR, OL. Took a tight end that nobody predicted. Talent pick.
Titans: Biggest need = CB, pass rush, QB, HB. Took a LT when they had an all pro LT. Talent pick.
New York Giants. Biggest need = pass rush, TE, WR. Took a WR. This pick met a big need, so I'll call it a need pick, although it wasn't the biggest.
St. Louis Rams. Biggest need = S/WR/QB. Took a falling DT. Talent pick.
Chicago Bears. Biggest need = CB. They took one. Need pick.
Pittsburgh Steelers. Biggest need = CB, S, Pass rush. Took an OLB. This pick fit a need, but they passed very good prospects at bigger needs. Talent pick.
Cowboys. Biggest need = DEFENSE. Took an offensive guard which shocked everyone. Talent pick and it was a great one.
Ravens. Biggest need = OT. They passed that up for a position that fit another need. I'll give this one. Need pick.
Jets. Biggest need = CB (it was at the time according to talk), QB, WR. Took a safety who isn't even starting. Talent pick. Also an awful pick, which I said at the time. On the subject, I think we can already call him a bust who got selected b/c of the proximity fallacy.
Dolphins. Biggest need = OT. They took an OT. Need pick.
Saints. Biggest need = I don't really know what they needed at the time, I rarely watch NO. MarchingOn what was the biggest need going into the draft?
Packers. Biggest need = TE/Pass rush. Took a S. Talent pick.
Browns. Biggest need = QB. Took a QB. Need pick, but notice they did so with their second pick, and this post is really about what teams do with their first.
Chiefs. Biggest need = Oline. Took a pass rusher that wasn't even a starter. Talent pick, and another mistake by the way I still think.
Bengals. Biggest need = I'm not sure what their biggest need was, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't CB since they had Adam Jones and Leon Hall. Talent pick.
Chargers. Biggest need = CB. They took my favorite CB in the draft, who is outplaying his stock as I said he would. Need pick.
Eagles. Biggest need = I'm not sure. EagleDomiKnation what was the biggest need coming in to the draft? Was it really OLB I don't feel like it was.
Cardinals. Biggest need = QB, OL, LB. Took a saftey that surprised everyone but has worked out well. Talent pick.
Panthers. Biggest need = OT, WR, CB. Took a WR. Need pick.
Pats. Biggest need = OL, WR. Took a DT who they knew would only rotate in. Talent pick.
49ers. Biggest need = WR, OLB (they were talking about replacing Aldon at the time). They took a safety. Talent pick.
Broncos. Biggest need = I'm not sure, but CB definitely was a need. I'll give this one. Need pick.
Vikings. Biggest need = QB. Took a QB BUT just like Cleveland they addressed the need with the second pick, which this article isn't about. Need pick.
Let's total that up, ignoring New Orleans and Philly for now since I don't remember what they needed at the time.
Talent picks 20, need picks 10.
So to recap, teams ignored their biggest need and in many cases, all of their needs entirely to draft guys based on talent. When Beast or I or CoC or anyone else mocks a player to your team that they don't need or isn't a desperate need, don't ridicule the mock drafter for that. Because they're right. The majority of teams look at talent first, second, third, fourth and fifth and consider what positions they need help at only after that. In later rounds, you see needs get addressed more often. I'm sure if you dissect the second round you'll find a more balanced breakdown.
Why is this? It's because General Managers want to keep their jobs, not make their team look better on paper. If the GM can show the owner one great player they got in each draft, it's very hard for them to get fired. If on the other hand they ignore great players to fill needs, they're getting axed for sure. Look at my Titans. We're not a talented team, we've been bad to mediocre for a while because of a lack of talent. But our GM has has his job for five years and isn't even on the hot seat. Why?
2010: Derrick Morgan and Alteraun Verner. We had Jason Jones and Jason McCourty.
2011: Jurrell Casey. We had Albert Haynesworth
2012: Kendall Wright. We had Nate Washington and Kenny Britt.
2013: Chance Warmack, Justin Hunter. We had Andy Levitre and Kendall Wright/Nate Washington.
2014: Already looks like Taylor Lewan is going to be a superstar one day, same with Avery Williamson. We had Michael Roos and Wesley Woodyard.
Just getting one very good to elite player in every draft will keep the GM alive. Reaching for needs doesn't do that. DON'T GIVE MOCK DRAFTERS SHIT FOR EXPRESSING HOW THE NFL REALLY WORKS.
One last note: This doesn't mean you shouldn't forecast a team picking a need in the first. The best teams find superstars at the positions they need. Needs are still a good guideline, but they are held WAY to sacred by fans, especially on this forum.