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Post by patriotsk1d on Jan 16, 2016 15:02:54 GMT -5
Pats inactives:
LaAdrian Waddle OT Tre Jackson OG Jon Bostic LB Chris Harper WR Tavon Wilson S Ishmauily Kitchen DT Geneo Grissom DL/LB
Very good sign for the health of this team. Jackson is really the only injured player who is inactive.
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Post by patriotsk1d on Jan 16, 2016 15:03:17 GMT -5
Maclin and Houston are active.
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Post by patriotsk1d on Jan 16, 2016 15:06:38 GMT -5
Pats have all their LB's healthy for the first time this season. The position has good depth, but has been really beat up. Hightower/Collins are the only two with defined roles. Should be interesting to see how much Freeny and Mayo play.
Also have all their WR's/TE's healthy for the first time this season. Edelman and Amendola have very clear roles. LaFell's role is pretty clear as well. Question is how much Martin and Chandler plays with every one healthy.
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Post by patriotsk1d on Jan 16, 2016 15:15:00 GMT -5
Going to be a big day for Akiem Hicks. Has been a breakout player for the Pats over the last 5 weeks, now his chance to do it on the national stage.
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Post by patriotsk1d on Jan 16, 2016 16:00:02 GMT -5
Mason warming up at RG, Kline at LG. Would be the first time this season Mason plays RG, which I think he is a better fit at anyways. He started 39 straight games at Georgia Tech at RG, but I believe he played LG this season because Tre Jackson was basically restricted to RG.
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Post by patriotsk1d on Jan 17, 2016 22:19:14 GMT -5
Scott Chandler led the team with 12 tackles in the last Denver matchup. No Edelman, no Amendola, and no Gronk in the OT.
Harris and Talib will struggle with Edelman and Amendola. Those two are great CB's, but our WR's quickness will cause them major problems.
Pats did an excellent job against their pass rush in the first game, time wasn't really an issue for Brady. Will look even better with a fully healthy receiving core.
Pats run defense was terrible after the second quarter(no coincidence that Hightower got hurt and it went to shit).
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Post by patriotsk1d on Jan 17, 2016 22:32:13 GMT -5
Pats are not going to practice Monday or Tuesday. Likely will practice Wednesday and Thursday, and have a walkthrough Friday.
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Post by patriotsk1d on Jan 17, 2016 23:52:22 GMT -5
Patrick Chung allowed 3.75 yards per catch yesterday. Gave up 4 catches for 15 yards on 7 targets, the 3 incompletions were on 3rd down. Chung has turned himself into one of the best and most consistent SS in the league. Pretty incredible actually for a guy who looked like his NFL career wasn't going to last much longer just 3 years ago. Butler was targeted 11 times, gave up 8 completions for 56 yards. Justin Coleman had a great game in his return, playing exclusively in the slot and giving up 3 catches on 7 targets for 26 yards. Morkim My Peters numbers come from the Boston Herald who has Brady 6 for 8 for 80 yards when targeting Peters, with Edelman catching 4 passes for 38 yards against him. I will verify sometime this week. Tricky part with coverage stats is everyone has a different view on certain types of zone coverage's. Rob Ninkovich was our most effective pass rusher, generating 5 pressures and a QB hit. Brady's average release time on throws to Edelman was 2.24 seconds, or 2.0 seconds if you don't count one particular play which was a 5.8 second scramble. Average time of release on throws to Gronk was an incredible 1.88 seconds. Brady's average for the night was 2.16 seconds.
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Post by patriotsk1d on Jan 18, 2016 13:18:55 GMT -5
In the week 12 matchup: Before Hightower injury: DEN had 15 carries for 43 yards (2.9 avg).
After Hightower injury: 15 carries for 132 yards (8.8 avg) and 3 TDs.
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Post by patriotsk1d on Jan 19, 2016 1:49:29 GMT -5
Pats are probably going to pass the ball 50+ times, just take a look at the game plan against Baltimore last year. They ran the ball 13 times in that game, and 6 of those runs were QB scrambles.
Its pretty simple really. This game features two teams who are terrible at running the football. Sad thing is it is probably fair to say Denver is significantly better at running the ball compared to us, which is terrible because their running game is pretty bad as well. The big difference is the offensive lines. Both are at about the same overall level, but the Pats is a lot better in pass protection and Denver's a lot better in the running game. Its kind of unfortunate for a guy like Steven Jackson, who is clearly still a solid running back(very obvious on tape), but gets so little room to actually run the football. The significantly improved passing game should help open up the running game, but it isn't going to be anything special anytime soon.
First matchup was pretty simple. Pats had Denver's offense completely shut down until Hightower got hurt. After that they couldn't stop the run anymore with our base 4-2-5 defense. It didn't help that Collins didn't play in the first matchup either. Pats had a lot of key injuries in that game, but there is no reason for the loss. The muffed punt with a 14 point lead killed us. It gave Denver all the momentum and we never got back on our feet.
Logan Ryan completely shut down DT in the first matchup, it was really impressive. He got safety help about 50 percent of the time, but his production didn't change without it. Was by far Ryan's best game of his career. I see no reason to go away from this matchup a second time around. My guess is we will see a lot of dime package looks, probably a 3-2-6 package with Jones, Brown, Ninkovich upfront, Hightower, Collins, and Chung at LB, Mccourty as a mid range safety, Harmon as a deep range safety, and Butler, Ryan, and Coleman at CB. Pats running defense will take a slight set back with only a 3 man front, but Collins and Hightower on the field at the same time should make up for it. Chung will matchup against the TE's and Mccourty will prevent the short middle routes.
Edelman is going to give Denver CB's a lot of trouble. They are excellent players, but their skill set is certainly not defending quick, great cutting receivers. Amendola will give them trouble too.
Taking a look at the 2014 regular season matchup can give everyone a pretty good idea of what offense to expect from the Pats. There are a couple of different players, but the 2014 Pats offense vs the 2014 Denver defense is very similar to this matchup. From the Pats standpoint it is a difference of White for Vereen(White is an upgrade), Jackson for Gray(Jackson is better, but their usage is minimal so it doesn't matter), no Develin(Barely utilized the FB in this game anyways), Amendola is playing a lot better but LaFell is playing worse.
Defensively there are a lot more player changes for the Pats, but the scheme and effectiveness is pretty much the same. Statistically speaking the Pats gave up 19.6 PPG in 2014 and 19.7 PPG in 2015. Gave up 344 YPG in 2014 and 339 YPG this year.
Essentially you have a 3 man rotation at edge rusher(Jones, Ninkovich, and Sheard), instead of just Jones and Ninkovich in 2014. The interior dline is a lot better and deeper, with Brown and Hicks being big upgrades over Wilfork and Siliga last year. But it really isn't about the starters it is just about the depth at the position. Wilfork and Siliga were solid players last year, but they were playing close to 80 percent of the snaps. Brown has been a starter all season and yet his snap percentage is in the mid 30 percent. Brown, Hicks, Branch, and Siliga all play consistent roles instead of 2014 where Wilfork and Siliga were the guys, and occasionally Branch would rotate in.
The LB's are deeper in 2015, but the starters are exactly the same. Collins and Hightower have made slight improvements over 2014 though, but it is pretty much the same core and scheme.
The CB's were expected to take a huge drop off this year from 2014, but that just hasn't been the case. 2015 Butler is barely any different than 2014 Revis. No he isn't an upgrade, but he certainly isn't a drop off. While Logan Ryan was on the team in 2014, he barely made any impact. He has proven himself as one of the best number two CB's in the NFL this season and is a big upgrade over 2014 Browner. There is no drop off from Coleman to 2014 Arrington. The only issue at CB is depth. The 2014 team was extremely deep, you had Butler, Dennard, and Ryan as guys who were healthy scratches some games. As long as everyone is healthy there is no real drop off from the CB position.
The safeties are pretty much identical to 2014. You have the same core guys: Chung, Mccourty, and Harmon. Harmon is pretty much playing at the same level as 2014. He is limited to deep safety roles, but he is really really good at it. Mccourty is also playing at the same level as 2014, but he is being used a little bit differently, playing closer to the LOS a lot more, mostly because of Harmon's deep range. Chung had a really nice bounce back year in 2014, but I think he has taken his game to a probowl level in 2015. It is really incredible what he has done in man to man coverage against TE's and slot WR's. His tackling is also really special and that was obvious against KC.
Denver's defense is pretty much the same core guys that it had in 2014. I think there defense is a little bit deeper, and most of there secondary is the same which I think is a bigger deal than most people realize. Very rarely do talented secondaries stay together in today's NFL. Just too much money too spread around at one position group, but it does lead to some really good defenses.
And no I don't think this means the Pats will blow them out and put up 40+ points again. All I am saying is schematically it should be a very similar matchup to what it was in the 2014 regular season vs the 2015 regular season.
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