cbagin
College Starter
Crunch Time
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Post by cbagin on Aug 27, 2014 10:51:25 GMT -5
Obviously we would all like the first RB more. But then the next year when the first RB only gets 200 carries, you would rather have the 2nd guy. Take Trent Richardson for example. In 2012 he had 267 attempts for 950 yards, or a 3.6 YPC, which isn't very good. His TDs and recovering helped him out quite a bit as well. Last year he was being drafted in the first or second round in every fantasy league. He only gets 188 attempts, which would have been 676 yards IF he had the same YPC, but he didn't, it got worse. YPC is very important to help project how guys will do in the future IMO, because a good YPC usually equals a good runner, and good runners usually get a fair amount of attempts. Sorry, the YPC I said was yards per catch. Should have been yards per reception, but whatever. Yards per reception is a useless stat for RBs. Ah ok, yeah that I agree with.
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Post by Juggs on Aug 27, 2014 10:53:11 GMT -5
Not necessarily. Having a good YPC is not important, it's just sometimes a side-effect of a good RB, sometimes not. But I'd rather have a runningback with 300 carries, 1200 yds than a guy with 150 carries and 900 yards, even though the second player would have twice the YPC. Obviously we would all like the first RB more. But then the next year when the first RB only gets 200 carries, you would rather have the 2nd guy. Take Trent Richardson for example. In 2012 he had 267 attempts for 950 yards, or a 3.6 YPC, which isn't very good. His TDs and recovering helped him out quite a bit as well. Last year he was being drafted in the first or second round in every fantasy league. He only gets 188 attempts, which would have been 676 yards IF he had the same YPC, but he didn't, it got worse. YPC is very important to help project how guys will do in the future IMO, because a good YPC usually equals a good runner, and good runners usually get a fair amount of attempts. I didn't draft him in any leagues not for his bad YPC, but simply because I didn't like how he panned out otherwise. I suppose you can use YPC as indicator of future success, but it would backfire if you judge a spell runningback who has an inflated YPC with it. James Starks had an absolutely blistering 5.5 YPC on a paltry 89 attempts because he was the third runningback in Green Bay. If he suddenly was signed by a team to be a RB1 or into a true RBBC, he would not be worth drafting anywhere above the 14th round anyway. It's true that bad YPC might correlate with a declining player, but you should be able to tell that Trent Richardson isn't panning out regardless of that one statistic. And using YPC to try and predict breakout players is garbage. I don't think YPC helps, for the previous reasons I said in other posts. We don't get points for it, and it is often the opposite of carries, which do result in points. Most imporantly, the highest YPC players (as you can see by this table really have no correlation to fantasy success whatsoever.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2014 11:52:39 GMT -5
Obviously we would all like the first RB more. But then the next year when the first RB only gets 200 carries, you would rather have the 2nd guy. Take Trent Richardson for example. In 2012 he had 267 attempts for 950 yards, or a 3.6 YPC, which isn't very good. His TDs and recovering helped him out quite a bit as well. Last year he was being drafted in the first or second round in every fantasy league. He only gets 188 attempts, which would have been 676 yards IF he had the same YPC, but he didn't, it got worse. YPC is very important to help project how guys will do in the future IMO, because a good YPC usually equals a good runner, and good runners usually get a fair amount of attempts. Yards per reception is a useless stat for RBs. Not for RB's in a PPR league who get plenty of plays called their way.
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Post by Morkim on Aug 27, 2014 12:42:42 GMT -5
Yards per reception is a useless stat for RBs. Not for RB's in a PPR league who get plenty of plays called their way. J Bell had a higher Yards per reception that Jamaal Charles. You drafting him over Charles? Yes, even in PPR, yards per reception is a useless stat.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2014 12:47:34 GMT -5
Take a look at some examples of RB statistics from PPR last season. Reggie Bush vs. Adrian Peterson. Peterson had 1,266 rushing yards, and 11 total TD's last season. Bush had 1,006 rushing yards and just 7 total TD's. Reggie ranked just two spots below AP of all PPR Rb's, and scored just under 15pts less. Eddie Lacy vs. Reggie Bush. Lacy had 1,178 rushing yards, and 11 total TD's. Bush had 1,006 rushing yards and just 7 total TD's. Lacy finished just one spot ahead of Bush of all PPR RB's, and scored about just 10 more points. A mere two spots down the list of PPR RB's after Bush... Danny Woodhead, who had just 429 rushing yards, and 8 total TD's. Woodhead scored under 20pts less than AP & Lacy. There are many examples of similar stories. The reason I brought this up, is because of the statement Juggs made about Joique Bell... "Joique Bell in round 7 is atrocious I don't know what you were thinking." Joique Bell is the primary third down back, will get the majority of goal-line work, and has the potential to lead Detroit in carries this season. He's a good value at his current 5th round ADP, and I got him in the 7th. My point is this...many of the RB's who do really well in standard scoring leagues, are being overvalued in PPR leagues. Odds are that none of the 3 RB's on my team will rush for 1,200+yards. Probably more likely to be hovering either slightly above or below the 1,000 yard mark. Fact is though, in a PPR league, my 3 Rb's will most likely be very close in point production to most other RB's outside of the top 4-5 options. I knew that going in, and that's why I drafted two WR's in the first two rounds, who were both top 10 scorers(outside of Qb's)last season. Antonio Brown was only outscored by McCoy and Charles. AJ Green only had 3 Rb's score more points...Charles, McCoy & Forte. In a PPR league, I'd much rather have two WR's likely to catch close to 100 passes for a lot of yards, as opposed to two second tier Rb's. For instance, Lynch & Murray had virtually identical ff points scored in a PPR, compared to Julian Edelman. Get my point? It all depends on what position you have in the draft, and how many teams are in the league. I had the 8th overall spot of 12 teams.
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Post by Divebitch on Aug 27, 2014 13:42:22 GMT -5
But I'd rather have a runningback with 300 carries, 1200 yds than a guy with 150 carries and 900 yards, even though the second player would have twice the YPC. Not twice, 50% more. 4 ypc vs. 6 ypc. Eddie, IDK if there was alcohol involved but @lestalkff said you have 3 good RBs, I don't see any more than 2, you waited a bit too long with your 3.8. I love your comments on Pettigrew and Alex Smith. lol Cutler a bit of a reach at 6.5, but not bad, he should do great. My concern there was that you say this was the end of a run. Don't be that guy. Let it go. You blew it, you'll get Cutler or someone as good 2 - 3 rounds later. It's a decent team, but don't think your WRs will carry you, sorry. IDK if you got a chance to see my pool. Wish you were here to go swimmin' with. It's really really nice. On my way down in a sec.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2014 15:57:06 GMT -5
But I'd rather have a runningback with 300 carries, 1200 yds than a guy with 150 carries and 900 yards, even though the second player would have twice the YPC. Not twice, 50% more. 4 ypc vs. 6 ypc. Eddie, IDK if there was alcohol involved but @lestalkff said you have 3 good RBs, I don't see any more than 2, you waited a bit too long with your 3.8. I love your comments on Pettigrew and Alex Smith. lol Cutler a bit of a reach at 6.5, but not bad, he should do great. My concern there was that you say this was the end of a run. Don't be that guy. Let it go. You blew it, you'll get Cutler or someone as good 2 - 3 rounds later. It's a decent team, but don't think your WRs will carry you, sorry. IDK if you got a chance to see my pool. Wish you were here to go swimmin' with. It's really really nice. On my way down in a sec. Jennings finished the preseason with 32 rushes for 192 yards (6.0 YPC) and a touchdown. Although Williams figures to get some goal-line touches, Jennings is opening the year with a near every-down role. He's a RB2. He'll be right around the 1,000 rushing yard mark, and I can see him catching around 50 passes also, scoring somewhere around 10 total TD's. Giovani Bernard should do about the same...Around 1,000 yards rushing, and over 50 catches. I also think Joique Bell will outproduce Reggie Bush this year, so he could be close in production as well. I have 3 rb's all likely to catch 50+passes and run for around 1,000yards. In PPR terms, that means I could very well have two Rb's in the top 10 scoring among Rb's, and one right outside of that. Bernard was already the 14th best RB last season, and he's guaranteed to see a significant increase in opportunities this season. Joique Bell finished 15th overall among RB's, and like Giovani Bernard, will be taking on an increased role this season. Look at your league last season. Reggie Bush & Chris Johnson finished 9th & 10th overall among Rb's. Next five...#11.Woodhead, 12.F-Jax, 13.Ryan Mathews, 14. Giovani Bernard, 15. Joique Bell. My WR's should both be on the top 10 overall scoring list(outside of Qb's). What more could I ask for from my first two picks? Two players in the top 10 overall(QB's not included), should make for one helluva duo. By the 6th round, Cutler was the ONLY viable QB I would consider. EVERYONE else was gone except for Kaepernick and Palmer. Couple of inexperienced fools screwed up the draft order on that position. Just got out the pool here with my daughter a few minutes ago. Enjoy
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Post by Divebitch on Aug 27, 2014 19:12:33 GMT -5
Actually, the more I look at your team, the better it looks. And TBH it annoys me sometimes when folk are too hard on the weaknesses, cuz some position has to take a hit unless you're drafting with idiots. Yeah, your WRs kick ass, but on further review, your RBs are not weak at all.
J Bell is a timeshare, but agre an increased role. Just don't know why he was with 4 diff teams between 2010 & 2011. Jennings who knows. Ya know, gonna have to keep outta threads like this for another 5 days. See ya Friday at 4 - CTM is my 1st draft.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2014 20:04:57 GMT -5
Actually, the more I look at your team, the better it looks. And TBH it annoys me sometimes when folk are too hard on the weaknesses, cuz some position has to take a hit unless you're drafting with idiots. Yeah, your WRs kick ass, but on further review, your RBs are not weak at all. J Bell is a timeshare, but agre an increased role. Just don't know why he was with 4 diff teams between 2010 & 2011. Jennings who knows. Ya know, gonna have to keep outta threads like this for another 5 days. See ya Friday at 4 - CTM is my 1st draft. Ah, I see. You must be confusing Joique Bell with Mikel Leshoure. Bell has only played for two seasons, and they were both in Detroit. Bell Was a rookie in 2012. He had 50+ catches for close to 500 receiving yards as a rookie, but only about 400 rushing yards and 3 rushing TD's, because he only had 82 rushing attempts. Last season, his second as a pro, he rushed for an extra 250yards(650 from 400), as they more than doubled his rushing attempts(166 from 82)and TD's(8 from 3), and he still had his 50+ catches for 500+ recieving yards. I'm expecting him to lead the team in rushing attempts this season. Probably an extra 40-50 this year maybe. You never do know though, but it sure is fun speculating. We shall see, we shall see.
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Post by Divebitch on Aug 28, 2014 3:20:29 GMT -5
Ah, I see. You must be confusing Joique Bell with Mikel Leshoure. Bell has only played for two seasons, and they were both in Detroit. Bell Was a rookie in 2012. He had 50+ catches for close to 500 receiving yards as a rookie, but only about 400 rushing yards and 3 rushing TD's, because he only had 82 rushing attempts. Last season, his second as a pro, he rushed for an extra 250yards(650 from 400), as they more than doubled his rushing attempts(166 from 82)and TD's(8 from 3), and he still had his 50+ catches for 500+ recieving yards. I'm expecting him to lead the team in rushing attempts this season. Probably an extra 40-50 this year maybe. You never do know though, but it sure is fun speculating. We shall see, we shall see. Uh, not really... www.nfl.com/player/joiquebell/497145/profile - looks like he suited up a little in 2010 but didn't play. Did not play at all for 2 diff teams (incl Lions) 2011. Okay, 6 transitions, practice squad. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joique_Bell UFA. He's 28, but apparently no mileage on him. Pretty amazing he's come this far. You can take that 2 ways. Yes, the receptions, considering his initial workload are extremely encouraging.
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