Post by Juggs on Sept 19, 2013 21:36:36 GMT -5
I talk a lot about who Locker is and who he's going to be. But today I ran across some really interesting numbers that can hammer home what I've been saying for a while.
1. My signature.
Jake Locker has been being characterized as a failure at worst, and a "make or break" at best. Little do most people know, he missed the majority of his first year starting with a broken collarbone. After he returned, his accuracy and arm strength were visibly diminished. Before the injury, he had a career statline of 10 TDs, 2 INTs, a 62% completion rate, and a QB rating of 113.5. That consists of his five games as a rookie and two games against New England and San Diego in 2012. Returning from the injury, he was miserable. He threw 2 TDs, 8 INTs, and completed just 51% of his passes over a six week span. If he hadn't been playing through injury, he probably would have been benched or cut, except for Munchak having extraordinary faith in him. This season, he appears to be playing like the pre-collarbone injury Locker. He has thrown for 2 TDs, 0 INTs, a 56% completion percentage, a QB rating of 95.1. He's done this while playing two impressive defenses in Pittsburgh and Houston.
2. His accuracy problems are greatly exaggerated.
The Tennessee Titans/Houston Oiler franchise has only sent one QB to the Hall of Fame in Warren Moon, who had a 57% career completion percentage, and was always knocked for being inaccurate with tough throws. Locker has a 55% career rate, and it really makes me wonder how important this stat actually is. Locker's average completion goes for only 12.5 yards, and he completes just 14 passes per game on average. So if Locker were to be as "accurate" as Warren Moon in this stat, he would garner only an extra 3.5 yards per game. If he achieved Tom Brady's career number of 63.6%, he would only earn an extra 14 yards per game! The moral of the story is that judging Locker's accuracy by his completion percentage stat is pretty much useless. It can serve as an indicator of a great QB, but you can be a great QB without a great percentage.
3. He's never been surrounded by a talented team before.
It's hard for me to admit, but there has been a huge lack of star power on the Titans during the Locker + Munchak era, and they still aren't a powerhouse. Aside from Chris Johnson, who doesn't really help Jake's development as much as you'd think, the Titans were kind of raw when it came to helping Jake improve. This year, they have 6 players who I would consider to be elite or nearly elite, and 5 of them are at or below the age of 28. The Titans have Chris Johnson, Andy Levitre, Micheal Roos, Kendall Wright, Jurrell Casey, and Bernard Pollard. If the Titans aren't dealing with long fields all game, Jake Locker could improve a lot.
4. His mentality, intangibles, and work ethic are top-notch.
No other QB busts have these things to the extent that Jake Locker has. I honestly believe he will keep playing football and helping his team win until he is physically incapable of doing that anymore. He is totally selfless. After the win against Pittsburgh, he was asked in the lockerroom how he felt he performed, and he said that it had been the best game of his career. The guy had gone 11/20 for 125 yards, no TDs or picks. That is the definition of mediocre, and game manager. But his reasoning was that the team had won on the road in Pittsburgh, and they had gotten their first opening game win in 3 years. He literally does not care about personal recognition, so he's never going to get phased by the media like Vince Young did. The guy is pretty much a saint, and everyone on the team and in the state are rooting for him.
I think he's going to pull it off.
1. My signature.
Jake Locker has been being characterized as a failure at worst, and a "make or break" at best. Little do most people know, he missed the majority of his first year starting with a broken collarbone. After he returned, his accuracy and arm strength were visibly diminished. Before the injury, he had a career statline of 10 TDs, 2 INTs, a 62% completion rate, and a QB rating of 113.5. That consists of his five games as a rookie and two games against New England and San Diego in 2012. Returning from the injury, he was miserable. He threw 2 TDs, 8 INTs, and completed just 51% of his passes over a six week span. If he hadn't been playing through injury, he probably would have been benched or cut, except for Munchak having extraordinary faith in him. This season, he appears to be playing like the pre-collarbone injury Locker. He has thrown for 2 TDs, 0 INTs, a 56% completion percentage, a QB rating of 95.1. He's done this while playing two impressive defenses in Pittsburgh and Houston.
2. His accuracy problems are greatly exaggerated.
The Tennessee Titans/Houston Oiler franchise has only sent one QB to the Hall of Fame in Warren Moon, who had a 57% career completion percentage, and was always knocked for being inaccurate with tough throws. Locker has a 55% career rate, and it really makes me wonder how important this stat actually is. Locker's average completion goes for only 12.5 yards, and he completes just 14 passes per game on average. So if Locker were to be as "accurate" as Warren Moon in this stat, he would garner only an extra 3.5 yards per game. If he achieved Tom Brady's career number of 63.6%, he would only earn an extra 14 yards per game! The moral of the story is that judging Locker's accuracy by his completion percentage stat is pretty much useless. It can serve as an indicator of a great QB, but you can be a great QB without a great percentage.
3. He's never been surrounded by a talented team before.
It's hard for me to admit, but there has been a huge lack of star power on the Titans during the Locker + Munchak era, and they still aren't a powerhouse. Aside from Chris Johnson, who doesn't really help Jake's development as much as you'd think, the Titans were kind of raw when it came to helping Jake improve. This year, they have 6 players who I would consider to be elite or nearly elite, and 5 of them are at or below the age of 28. The Titans have Chris Johnson, Andy Levitre, Micheal Roos, Kendall Wright, Jurrell Casey, and Bernard Pollard. If the Titans aren't dealing with long fields all game, Jake Locker could improve a lot.
4. His mentality, intangibles, and work ethic are top-notch.
No other QB busts have these things to the extent that Jake Locker has. I honestly believe he will keep playing football and helping his team win until he is physically incapable of doing that anymore. He is totally selfless. After the win against Pittsburgh, he was asked in the lockerroom how he felt he performed, and he said that it had been the best game of his career. The guy had gone 11/20 for 125 yards, no TDs or picks. That is the definition of mediocre, and game manager. But his reasoning was that the team had won on the road in Pittsburgh, and they had gotten their first opening game win in 3 years. He literally does not care about personal recognition, so he's never going to get phased by the media like Vince Young did. The guy is pretty much a saint, and everyone on the team and in the state are rooting for him.
I think he's going to pull it off.