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Post by lostabroad2 on Sept 27, 2016 14:31:31 GMT -5
Week 4 ESPN handicaps: Dolphins @ Bengals -6.5 Colts @ Jaguars 2.5 Panthers @ Falcons 2.5 Bills @ Patriots -6.5 Lions @ Bears 2.5 Browns @ Redskins -8.5 Titans @ Texans -6.5 Raiders @ Ravens -3.5 Seahawks @ Jets 3.5 Broncos @ Buccaneers 3.5 Cowboys @ 49ers 2.5 Rams @ Cardinals -8.5 Saints @ Chargers -4.5 Chiefs @ Steelers -5.5 Giants @ Vikings -4.5
Your points value choices: Dolphins 25 or Bengals 12 Colts 16 or Jaguars 21 Panthers 16 or Falcons 21 Bills 25 or Patriots 12 Lions 16 or Bears 21 Browns 27 or Redskins 10 Titans 25 or Texans 12 Raiders 22 or Ravens 15 Seahawks 15 or Jets 22 Broncos 15 or Buccaneers 22 Cowboys 16 or 49ers 21 Rams 27 or Cardinals 10 Saints 23 or Chargers 14 Chiefs 24 or Steelers 13 Giants 23 or Vikings 14
Some awkward choices to be made this week.
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Post by TonOdanK on Sept 28, 2016 10:04:26 GMT -5
Crappy week. Hopefully I can redeem myself
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Post by lostabroad2 on Sept 29, 2016 5:27:19 GMT -5
You're still over 50%. People struggle when there are unexpected results. Generally people score well when favourites are doing well. If the points distribution is 21 -16 then theoretically 21 people should pick the 16 points scoring favourite for every 16 people picking the 21 points scoring underdog. In reality people pick favourites. As an extreme example all 19 players picked the Cowboys last week. Historically the average score per pick is 16.25 so on a week with 15 picks i'd expect the best possible score to around 243, (rounded down). Last week the BPS was 271. I'm suprised people scored as well as they did.
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Post by lostabroad2 on Oct 4, 2016 17:29:33 GMT -5
Ouch! Week 4 is in the books and it's a book i'll be hiding at the back of my sock drawer. A minor curiosity occurred this week. 30 teams played and all 30 teams were picked by at least 1 person. The Giants on Monday Night were the only team not picked by at least 2 people. Since 19 out of 20 people picked the Vikings there wasn't a lot of change from Sunday's leaderboards.
The best possible score was 255 Rho*** 190 Ken 179 LAC*** 176 Dod*** 165 TonOdanK 163 cvr*** 153 Jor*** 152 Flo*** 148 Lum*** 145 Dav*** 144 Bri*** 143 Ath** 138 dol*** 138 TK4*** 138 Old*** 128 Tro* 117 Ram*** 113 Dag*** 101 Riv*** 101 lostabroad2 80
Auto-pick scores: Roland (every road team) 143 Hobart (every home team) 112 Fanny (every favourite) 95 Undra (every underdog) 160 Max (maximum system theory) 142 Minnie (minimum system theory) 113 *** Bookie (Thursday ML) 73
Cumulative scores:
The best possible score was 1029 Ken 658 Rho*** 656 Lum*** 644 Ram*** 587 cvr*** 585 Jor*** 584 TonOdanK 560 dol*** 550 Dod*** 538 Dav*** 537 Tro* 516 Flo*** 498 Ath** 496 TK4*** 495 Old*** 487 lostabroad2 482 Riv*** 481 LAC*** 457 Dag*** 425
Auto-pick scores: Roland (every road team) 569 Hobart (every home team) 460 Fanny (every favourite) 423 Undra (every underdog) 606 Max (maximum system theory) 500 Minnie (minimum system theory) 529 *** Bookie (Thursday ML) 540
The year of the underdog and the road team continues unabated but despite this and the scoring system slightly favouring favourites the group continues to perform above expectations. Picking at random should score 50%. Taking the value, (such as the Bengals & Vikings this week) should boost that 50% every so slightly over the course of the season. Even so I projected the median to be 50.7%. Scores were surprisingly good this week and the group average score is 538.7, which is 52.3%. Well done.
Week 5 ESPN handicaps: Cardinals @ 49ers 2.5 Bears @ Colts -4.5 Patriots @ Browns 10.5 Eagles @ Lions 2.5 Titans @ Dolphins -3.5 Texans @ Vikings -6.5 Jets @ Steelers -7.5 Redskins @ Ravens -3.5 Falcons @ Broncos -6.5 Bills @ Rams -2.5 Bengals @ Cowboys 0.5 Chargers @ Raiders -4.5 Giants @ Packers -7.5 Buccaneers @ Panthers -3.5
Your points value choices: Cardinals 16 or 49ers 21 Bears 23 or Colts 14 Patriots 8 or Browns 29 Eagles 16 or Lions 21 Titans 22 or Dolphins 15 Texans 25 or Vikings 12 Jets 26 or Steelers 11 Redskins 22 or Ravens 15 Falcons 25 or Broncos 12 Bills 21 or Rams 16 Bengals 18 or Cowboys 19 Chargers 23 or Raiders 14 Giants 26 or Packers 11 Buccaneers 22 or Panthers 15
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Post by lostabroad2 on Oct 11, 2016 10:21:02 GMT -5
Week 5 has come and gone. It looked like an easy week where a lot of games picked themselves. 10 out of 20 players had identical picks on the early games so they all had 67 points when the afternoon games started. 4 players had more than 67 points, the high score was 89, the low scores were 45 and 46, and 18 out of 20 players had 59 or more points.
...and then all hell broke loose!
The best possible score was 222 Ath** 179 dol*** 158 TK4*** 154 Rho*** 150 cvr*** 138 Dag*** 132 Jor*** 132 Flo*** 125 lostabroad2 122 Dav*** 114 Riv*** 113 Tro* 111 Ken 110 LAC*** 96 Old*** 92 Dod*** 91 TonOdanK 91 Lum*** 89 Ram*** 78
Auto-pick scores: Roland (every road team) 120 Hobart (every home team) 102 Fanny (every favourite) 70 Undra (every underdog) 152 Max (maximum system theory) 131 Minnie (minimum system theory) 91 *** Bookie (Thursday ML) 116
Cumulative scores:
The best possible score was 1251 Rho*** 806 Ken 768 Lum*** 733 cvr*** 723 Jor*** 716 dol*** 708 Ath** 675 Ram*** 665 Dav*** 651 TonOdanK 651 TK4*** 649 Dod*** 629 Tro* 627 Flo*** 623 lostabroad2 604 Riv*** 594 Old*** 579 Dag*** 557 LAC*** 553
Auto-pick scores: Roland (every road team) 689 Hobart (every home team) 562 Fanny (every favourite) 493 Undra (every underdog) 758 Max (maximum system theory) 631 Minnie (minimum system theory) 620 *** Bookie (Thursday ML) 656
I have no clue as to why favourites are performing spectacularly badly but I suspect a lot of Pick'ems look a real mess this year.
I'll be back later with the handicaps and points scoring options for Week 6.
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Post by lostabroad2 on Oct 11, 2016 16:26:33 GMT -5
Week 6 ESPN handicaps: Broncos @ Chargers 3.5 49ers @ Bills -7.5 Jaguars @ Bears -2.5 Bengals @ Patriots -9.5 Browns @ Titans -6.5 Rams @ Lions -3.5 Steelers @ Dolphins 7.5 Panthers @ Saints 2.5 Ravens @ Giants -2.5 Eagles @ Redskins 1.5 Chiefs @ Raiders -1.5 Falcons @ Seahawks -6.5 Cowboys @ Packers -4.5 Colts @ Texans -3.5 Jets @ Cardinals -7.5
Your points value choices: Broncos 15 or Chargers 22 49ers 26 or Bills 11 Jaguars 21 or Bears 16 Bengals 28 or Patriots 9 Browns 25 or Titans 12 Rams 22 or Lions 15 Steelers 11 or Dolphins 26 Panthers 16 or Saints 21 Ravens 21 or Giants 16 Eagles 17 or Redskins 20 Chiefs 20 or Raiders 17 Falcons 25 or Seahawks 12 Cowboys 23 or Packers 14 Colts 22 or Texans 15 Jets 26 or Cardinals 11
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Post by TonOdanK on Oct 15, 2016 21:39:16 GMT -5
I have a feeling I'm going to have another crappy week
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Post by lostabroad2 on Oct 16, 2016 9:55:36 GMT -5
I have a feeling I'm going to have another crappy week This Pick'em will be won and lost on the games that should be tight, (the picks where there are 15-22 points available on both teams). There are 7 of those games this week so there's a real chance for triumph or disaster. I'm happy with my picks this week but i've been having a nightmare when games are close. On the last 7 games that have been decided by 4 points or less i'm 0-7.
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Post by lostabroad2 on Oct 16, 2016 17:33:44 GMT -5
TonOdanK with the 7-out-of-9 early wins crappy week.
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Post by lostabroad2 on Oct 18, 2016 1:54:42 GMT -5
Week 6 bamboozled everyone. The only team not picked by anyone was the Dolphins. Most people preferred the Raiders, the Eagles, and the Packers, (and the Rams since I host this on a Rams site). Not surprisingly scores were poor. I even misread the board and tried to give TonOdanK an extra early game win, and if he had picked the Jaguars he would have been the weekly winner. How close was Week 6? Well, the weekly winner was either going to be Dod*** with the Cardinals or Tro* with the Jets...and with the losing Monday Night pick Tro* finished 12th. The best possible score was 232 Dod*** 136 Dav*** 132 Dag*** 129 cvr*** 127 Old*** 127 Flo***124 LAC*** 123 Rho*** 123 TonOdanK 122Riv*** 121 TK4*** 118 Tro* 117 Jor*** 103 Ath** 100 dol*** 95 Ram*** 81 lostabroad2 74Lum*** 73 Ken 44 Auto-pick scores: Roland (every road team) 64 Hobart (every home team) 168 Fanny (every favourite) 101 Undra (every underdog) 131 Max (maximum system theory) 167 Minnie (minimum system theory) 65 *** Bookie (Thursday ML) 142 Cumulative scores: The best possible score was 1483 Rho*** 929 cvr*** 850 Jor*** 819 Ken 812 Lum*** 806 dol*** 803 Dav*** 783 Ath** 775 TonOdanK 773TK4*** 767 Dod*** 765 Flo*** 747 Ram***746 Tro* 744 Riv*** 715 Old*** 706 Dag*** 686 lostabroad2 678LAC*** 676 Auto-pick scores: Roland (every road team) 753 Hobart (every home team) 730 Fanny (every favourite) 594 Undra (every underdog) 889 Max (maximum system theory) 798 Minnie (minimum system theory) 685 *** Bookie (Thursday ML) 798 I'll post the Week 7 handicaps and points scoring options later today.
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