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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2014 23:49:19 GMT -5
I've made it to the Championship game in my one and only money league. There is $1,415 in the pot left to split between 1st & 2nd place. There are four payout options that can take place for that money. #1. 50/50 split: We could both agree to split it right down the middle and get a little over $700 cash right now, before the game is even played out. #2. 60%/40% split: If we agree to this, the winner would get $849 & the loser would get $566. #3. 80%/20% split: If we can't agree on on any other option, it simply comes down to this. Winner would get $1,132 and loser would get $283. My opponent gave me an offer of $350 cash, yesterday. He was like, I feel confident in my team, and that's better than the $283 you would get on the 80%/20% split. I was like, wait a minute, I haven't even got a chance to look at our matchup yet. Keep in mind he's a car salesman, that's only roughly a $70 difference between me going for it all (80%/20%), AND I knew he was bluffing. He get so fucking nervous over EVERY playoff game, even when he's heavily projected to win. He's paranoid like that. I came back and told him $350 wasn't enough to buy me off, and that I actually liked my chances of winning the game, which I honestly do. I came back and told him I "may" consider $500 cash in my pocket right now, only because I need the money now. He comes back with an offer of $450. I KNOW how paranoid he is about losing, and I think I still have a shot to convince him on splitting it right down the middle. I'm actually thinking of using his paranoia against him and raising it to $550 now. Or maybe I should just shoot it out for the 80%/20%? What do you all think? Flying High(me) vs. him
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2014 23:53:50 GMT -5
What I like about that espn site, is how you can click on the opponent that each player on both teams is facing, and it tells you exactly where they rank versus that position.
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Post by Juggs on Dec 18, 2014 0:51:23 GMT -5
If it were me, I'd go 50/50. Fantasy football is totally out of your control, even if we like to pretend it isn't. I know it makes the game meaningless in terms of money, but I'd say it will let you sleep well at night before the big day.
Look at it this way: if you go 50/50 and win, you'll have lost out on a few hundred, and that sucks. BUT that's balanced by the excitement of still having 700 that you didn't have yesterday, AND winning a championship. If you go with a wager and you win, you'll feel great because you were really freakin smart and used that intelligence to make money. But if you bet and lose, you will be crushed. It will be loss on all fronts because you lose money that you've earned by playing well all season, and you lose the big game, which I assume you are emotionally invested in.
In all life, but especially in gambling, I prefer to play a style that avoids the big loss and lets me keep winning the smaller battles. But that's just me. If you're feeling lucky on this game, go for it. I'm not sure what input anyone can really give you other than just to weight the choices of a guaranteed 700 with the chance of a slight let down if you win, vs a 50/50 shot (that's what fantasy is) at 1.4k but the other side of that coin is brutal.
Again, I'd take the 50/50 every day of the week, even if I was certain I would win. But then again, I play poker competitively and fold pre-flop 80% of the time (non-BBs of course). Some people can't live that way and I can't blame them. This is a pretty big decision you have to make and I would consider all the options, including what you would spend 700 on vs 1400 and also, I would eliminate what you think about the likelihood of winning. Fantasy is always a crapshoot on gameday.
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Post by gobolts25 on Dec 18, 2014 1:02:55 GMT -5
No sure things there; your RB's are going up against some pretty solid defenses, and with Johnny Muddle starting I don't have a lot of faith in Gordon. The Ravens will get to victimize a new QB, but then the Lions get to feast on Clausen. I'd tend to favor his chances of winning, but any given Sunday...
Depends how bad you need the money, I guess. If so, you can probably sell the 60-40 split.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 1:07:24 GMT -5
If it were me, I'd go 50/50. Fantasy football is totally out of your control, even if we like to pretend it isn't. I know it makes the game meaningless in terms of money, but I'd say it will let you sleep well at night before the big day. Look at it this way: if you go 50/50 and win, you'll have lost out on a few hundred, and that sucks. BUT that's balanced by the excitement of still having 700 that you didn't have yesterday, AND winning a championship. If you go with a wager and you win, you'll feel great because you were really freakin smart and used that intelligence to make money. But if you bet and lose, you will be crushed. It will be loss on all fronts because you lose money that you've earned by playing well all season, and you lose the big game, which I assume you are emotionally invested in. In all life, but especially in gambling, I prefer to play a style that avoids the big loss and lets me keep winning the smaller battles. But that's just me. If you're feeling lucky on this game, go for it. I'm not sure what input anyone can really give you other than just to weight the choices of a guaranteed 700 with the chance of a slight let down if you win, vs a 50/50 shot (that's what fantasy is) at 1.4k but the other side of that coin is brutal. Again, I'd take the 50/50 every day of the week, even if I was certain I would win. But then again, I play poker competitively and fold pre-flop 80% of the time (non-BBs of course). Some people can't live that way and I can't blame them. This is a pretty big decision you have to make and I would consider all the options, including what you would spend 700 on vs 1400 and also, I would eliminate what you think about the likelihood of winning. Fantasy is always a crapshoot on gameday. Okay, so...I just talked to him on the phone. He told me that he is REALLY hurting for money, and in a very bad place. He's one of the top salesman at my place, and I'm brand spanking new. He obviously has been blowing money away carelessly, and got himself in some trouble. He has now offered me $515 to call it a day, and practically begged me to accept, because he's in a really tough spot. I know for a fact that he's one of, if not THEE best salespeople there, but he doesn't kill it cause he's lazy. My manager even told me so, that he's the BEST there, when he want's to be. He promised me to take me under his wing and show me how to be the best I can be in this industry if i just cut him a brake(due to his situation)and take the deal. I know he will follow up on his word to teach me all the in's/out's of our industry. He's good friend's with my cousin, and my cousin already asked him to do so. Now he will have no choice but to teach me all that he knows. I'mgoing to accept his deal. Shit, I put $100 into it in August, and gonna get back $515 no later than Friday. And, to be honest, his team does look slightly better on paper.... Am I correct?
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Post by cityofchamps on Dec 18, 2014 1:19:12 GMT -5
If it were me, I'd go 50/50. Fantasy football is totally out of your control, even if we like to pretend it isn't. I know it makes the game meaningless in terms of money, but I'd say it will let you sleep well at night before the big day. Look at it this way: if you go 50/50 and win, you'll have lost out on a few hundred, and that sucks. BUT that's balanced by the excitement of still having 700 that you didn't have yesterday, AND winning a championship. If you go with a wager and you win, you'll feel great because you were really freakin smart and used that intelligence to make money. But if you bet and lose, you will be crushed. It will be loss on all fronts because you lose money that you've earned by playing well all season, and you lose the big game, which I assume you are emotionally invested in. In all life, but especially in gambling, I prefer to play a style that avoids the big loss and lets me keep winning the smaller battles. But that's just me. If you're feeling lucky on this game, go for it. I'm not sure what input anyone can really give you other than just to weight the choices of a guaranteed 700 with the chance of a slight let down if you win, vs a 50/50 shot (that's what fantasy is) at 1.4k but the other side of that coin is brutal. Again, I'd take the 50/50 every day of the week, even if I was certain I would win. But then again, I play poker competitively and fold pre-flop 80% of the time (non-BBs of course). Some people can't live that way and I can't blame them. This is a pretty big decision you have to make and I would consider all the options, including what you would spend 700 on vs 1400 and also, I would eliminate what you think about the likelihood of winning. Fantasy is always a crapshoot on gameday. Okay, so...I just talked to him on the phone. He told me that he is REALLY hurting for money, and in a very bad place. He's one of the top salesman at my place, and I'm brand spanking new. He obviously has been blowing money away carelessly, and got himself in some trouble. He has now offered me $515 to call it a day, and practically begged me to accept, because he's in a really tough spot. I know for a fact that he's one of, if not THEE best salespeople there, but he doesn't kill it cause he's lazy. My manager even told me so, that he's the BEST there, when he want's to be. He promised me to take me under his wing and show me how to be the best I can be in this industry if i just cut him a brake(due to his situation)and take the deal. I know he will follow up on his word to teach me all the in's/out's of our industry. He's good friend's with my cousin, and my cousin already asked him to do so. Now he will have no choice but to teach me all that he knows. I'mgoing to accept his deal. Shit, I put $100 into it in August, and gonna get back $515 no later than Friday. And, to be honest, his team does look slightly better on paper.... Am I correct?The decisions he made with his money is not on you. If he is putting his financial hopes on Fantasy Football, than he should sleep in the bed he made. I would say 50/50 is the lowest I would go, maybe $550-600. Honestly, though his team looks better than yours on paper. If he wasted money carelessly, then that shouldn't be on you, even if your personal relationship might be in jeopardy. How much did you invest into the pot? If you can at least get your investment back plus maybe another couple hundred or so, then I would say let him have the rest.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 1:19:42 GMT -5
No sure things there; your RB's are going up against some pretty solid defenses, and with Johnny Muddle starting I don't have a lot of faith in Gordon. The Ravens will get to victimize a new QB, but then the Lions get to feast on Clausen. I'd tend to favor his chances of winning, but any given Sunday... Depends how bad you need the money, I guess. If so, you can probably sell the 60-40 split. Thx. That's sorta how I see it. I think he has the advantage, at least on paper. The 60/40 split would have netted me $566 if I lost. His new offer was for $515, and he wasn't budging. I took it, and accepted. I earned $415 profit from my $100 investment, AND I get the cash early enough to help out big-time with X-mas. I say it's a win-win. Like you said too, on paper, it was a tough game for me to win anyway with the matchups. Think it would have been close, but he certainly had the slight advantage going into it. I basically still got close to the 60/40 split($50 difference), AND I get the money this week instead of next week...lord knows I need it now. I "think" I made the right move considering the circumstances.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 1:26:43 GMT -5
I did, however, give up the chance at winning the 80%/20% split, which would have got me over $1,100. cityofchamps- That $515 is still a $415 profit from my initial $100 investment. I did concede my chances of winning over $1,100. Think I made the right call, ya'll?
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Post by cantonhall34 on Dec 18, 2014 3:39:24 GMT -5
I think you should have let it play out, eddie. After the game, and IF you have won, then if you feel like you should help him out, then that's what you should do. If you should lose, you still made a nice chunk from your original investment. If you win and help him out, you can decide how much it's worth.
Not trying to sound harsh here at all, just that it would be YOUR decision, not a percentage thing. And whoever this person is would be grateful you helped them out anyway, and who knows, IF you really felt compelled, you could just end up giving him the winner's share anyway (meaning you would win the league but take the second place share), but YOU won the league and made that decision because you felt it was the right thing to do.
Whatever you decide, I think it's a great thing that you wanna help out like that. Kudos, eddie!
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Post by Divebitch on Dec 18, 2014 10:13:41 GMT -5
My first thought was I'd be super pissed at his $350 offer. That was before I assessed the situation. Lemme get this straight, you got roughly 35%, yes? No option of waiting until Friday night to cement the deal? Cuz the 'Q' status of Charles would be critical. IOW, if Charles is fully cleared and active, you have a ghost of a longshot at winning IMO. No Kniles to plug in for Asiata, Foster is a 'Q' as well, hip in addition to groin now, it's not good. Bengals stuck to their word about Hill being the starter, but it's a new thing so no guarantee that will pan out to even 70-30 week to week. Agree with gobolts that Gordon is now very bad news. All NFL Network guys agreed, he's the scratch in your line-up.
So you probably did the right thing. He may have been doing you a huge favor. Without going into detail on every one, you have NO bench whatsoever except for Knile Davis, YIKES. TYTT, he wouldn't miss a beat without Charles. He's stacked at RB - all with decent matchups. Lamar Miller (MIN - yum), Steven Jackson (NO - yum), Andre William (Rams, eh - but Jennings should be downgraded to doubtful soon I bet). Even Sankey - Jags, yum! So he can replace Alshon Jeffrey (DET anyway) with 1 of them. I also think (PRAY!!) Peyton will rebound, with Demaryius as a primary beneficiary. This is all aside from the fact 1) he's desperate, 2) you work together, and 3) he'll teach you stuff.
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