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Post by gridiron23 on Oct 22, 2014 20:48:51 GMT -5
I know it's still early in the season but are we on the verge of a cowboys/broncos Super Bowl? Your thoughts please.
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Post by patriotsk1d on Oct 22, 2014 21:00:59 GMT -5
I know it's still early in the season but are we on the verge of a cowboys/broncos Super Bowl? Your thoughts please. I don't get why a lot of people are all of a sudden assuming Dallas is going to be just as good in December and January. And if we are going off of history then it is most likely both the teams you named go one and done.
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Post by Jindred on Oct 22, 2014 21:15:16 GMT -5
I am going with Colts Vs Packers right now. Luck and Rodgers playing at incredibly high levels. Both Defense's playing well, both have running games to accompany the passing game. I see the Colts getting hot come playoff time, and I think the Packers right now are easily the most well rounded team in the NFC.
IMO Dallas will peter out as the season goes on. DeMarco Murry is getting too many carries and will start to ebb later in the season. When Murry starts slowing down so will the rest of their offense, and I really don't have faith in their defense to keep up what its been doing, they don't have any depth or any game changers.
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Post by 101mitch on Oct 22, 2014 22:03:07 GMT -5
I am on the Chiefs-Boys train..
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Post by EagleDomiKnation on Oct 22, 2014 22:34:51 GMT -5
Jesus
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Post by gobolts25 on Oct 23, 2014 2:06:34 GMT -5
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Post by EagleDomiKnation on Oct 23, 2014 10:24:01 GMT -5
Exactly, not even half way thru the season and all of these closet cowgirl fans predicting a sb for lil d. Hello! Philly only has one loss also!. The Chargers, Pats, chefs, and Colts could easily supplant the broncs.
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Post by EagleDomiKnation on Oct 23, 2014 12:57:11 GMT -5
The Dallas Cowboys have won six straight games and now have the NFL's best record at 6-1. They made their first big statement a month ago by routing New Orleans in prime time. Last week, they went into Seattle and became only the second road team in the past two years to win at CenturyLink Field. This week, they easily took out the New York Giants in their first NFC East matchup of the season. DeMarco Murray broke an NFL record with his seventh straight 100-yard game and Tony Romo leads the NFL in completion rate (69.2 percent) and has 97.5 QBR on third downs.
It finally seems like the glory days have returned for Mexico's Team after three straight years of 8-8. The ESPN Power Rankings currently have Dallas as the No. 2 team in the league, trailing only the Denver Broncos.
However, a look at their performance over the season to date suggests that the Cowboys aren't quite that good. Dallas is very good, but not great. According to the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, the Cowboys aren't even one of the top-five teams in the NFL, trailing Denver, Baltimore, Green Bay and Indianapolis. They even trail Seattle, which has played the toughest schedule in the NFL this year, although obviously the Cowboys deserve credit for giving the Seahawks their worst loss of the season. (DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, is explained further here . You can find the numbers through Week 7 here .)
Let's get this out of the way first: Murray is not overrated. Dez Bryant is not overrated. The Cowboys' offensive line is not overrated. And Romo, longtime punching bag of the football commentariat, is definitely not overrated. DVOA ranks the Cowboys' offense third, trailing only Denver and Green Bay.
Nonetheless, there are three main units on a football team, and the other two units really haven't been very good. The defense has certainly been better than last year, and better than everyone expected before the season, but that doesn't mean it's been good. And on special teams, except for kicker Dan Bailey, they have been decidedly below average.
On a per-play basis, that Cowboys defense that looks so much improved has actually been almost as bad as it was a year ago. Dallas is allowing the same average of 6.1 yards per play, with roughly the same frequency of turnovers. The biggest difference for the defense is actually the offense, which is keeping the defense off the field with those extended, run-heavy drives. Only two defenses have been on the field for a shorter time per game. Less time on the field means less yardage and scoring allowed.
The Cowboys' defense is also better this season because of the distribution of the yardage it has given up. The Cowboys have been better than last season on both first and second down, which means they can give up a little bit more yardage on third down and not be hurt by it. The Cowboys have given up 6.90 yards per play on third or fourth downs in 2014, compared to 6.36 yards per play in 2013. However, they've allowed the same 44 percent conversion rate that they did a year ago.
As for special teams, Bailey has been the most valuable kicker in the league on field goals this season, going 14-of-15, with his only miss coming from 53 yards. He's also been above average on kickoffs. However, the Cowboys rank 18th in our ratings for kick returns, 29th for punts and 30th for punt returns. Though Dwayne Harris has been good in the past, he has muffed or fumbled four different punts this year, and he doesn't have a kickoff return of over 30 yards.
The Cowboys look better than they really have been in part because we are judging them based on how good we thought their opponents were when the Cowboys played them, not based on how good those teams really are this season. For instance:
-- When the Cowboys dismantled Tennessee in Week 2, we all thought that was a big deal because the Titans had played so well in Week 1 -- a game that now looks like a complete fluke.
-- San Francisco and Seattle are clearly not the juggernauts they were a year ago.
-- And as for scoring 38 points on this season's New Orleans Saints ... gee, get in line.
Furthermore, our ratings have the Cowboys lower than conventional wisdom because we are measuring all seven games this season, not just the last six. The Cowboys certainly no longer look like the team that lost 28-17 to San Francisco on the first Sunday of the season. If we measure just the six games in their winning streak, the Cowboys' DVOA goes from 14 percent better than average to 26 percent better than average.
But if you are going to only consider the Cowboys' record since Week 2, then you have to extend the same privilege to the rest of the league. And it just so happens that a number of this season's top teams have overcome bad games in Week 1. Baltimore lost in Week 1. So did Green Bay, Indianapolis, San Diego and New England. So if we remove Week 1 from consideration, not only does Dallas look better, but all those teams look better as well. If we only look at DVOA for Week 2 onward, the Cowboys still trail Denver, Baltimore and Green Bay. Their defense is still just 14th, their special teams 21st.
None of this is to say that the Cowboys are about to collapse, of course. Being the fifth- or seventh-best team in the NFL is still pretty good, and the Cowboys have an average remaining schedule. Our playoff odds simulation currently gives them a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs, and a 38 percent chance of getting a first-round bye. However, Jerry Jones shouldn't start measuring his finger for a fourth Super Bowl ring quite yet. What's the difference between Dallas and a truly great team? Well, Dallas through Week 7 is tied as the sixth-best team of 2014. Denver through Week 7 is the sixth-best team of the entire last 25 years. Not quite the same thing.
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Post by nateball89 on Oct 23, 2014 15:51:52 GMT -5
Baltimore had a Superbowl hangover last year, but Flacco is playing good football this year and has Steve Smith Sr., who looks nothing like an over the hill, washed up wide receiver. He in fact looks like a very young Steve Smith, and it looks like the Panthers made a huge mistake in letting him go. All that to say this - the Ravens once again look like a legit AFC contender for the Supperbowl. So do the Broncos, who probably always will as long as Peyton Manning is playing for them. What they have this year that they didn't last year is a phenomenal pass rush with the cheater(I know I'll take some flak from Broncos fans for this statement) Von Miller, and the newly acquired DeMarcus Ware. Those two teams are my favorites in the AFC. Brady is Brady, yes, but when's the last time the Patriots were relevant in Superbowl talks?(And I'll probably take some flak from PATRIOTS fans for THAT statement) NFC - as EagleDomiKnation so elegantly copy and pasted( , ha, I'm pissing everyone off) the Cowboys are good this year. They're VERY good. Better than they've been since maybe the 1990's. Jerry Jones is probably soiling his adult diapers on game days. Can they make it to the Superbowl? I can very easily see the Eagles overcoming their mediocre defense and reaching the Superbowl. Chip Kelly knows wtf he's doing. I also like the Lions, but Stafford would have to remain consistent in the playoffs. I can't believe I'm actually talking about the Lions and the Superbowl in the same sentence. The Seahawks seem to be suffering from Superbowl hangover, and could very well have to make the playoffs as a wild card team behind Arizona, and could very well be a one and done team. Arizona? I like Carson Palmer, don't get me wrong, but I don't view him as a top ten QB who can will his team to the Superbowl. I can, however, see Bruce Arians COACHING his team to a Superbowl.
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Post by ram29jackson on Oct 23, 2014 15:52:37 GMT -5
Denver vs...it doesn't really matter, Niners,Lions,Giants
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