Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2013 19:18:00 GMT -5
www.dawgsbynature.com/2013/2/13/3986494/first-round-draft-picks-what-should-we-expect
Here is a very nice read on 1st round average pro-bowl rate, average length of a 1st rounder's career, and average year as a starter. These statistics are from the 1st rounds of 1999-2004.
Can you believe that 17% of 1st round picks only start 1 year in their entire career? 28% only start 3 years in their career. I consider if you start less than 4-5 years in your career as a first round draft pick, then you are probably a bust. That means around 45% of 1st round picks end up being disapointments to being flat out busts. That means about 14 draft picks this year will be busts and pretty much never make a pro-bowl and at the best only be a starter on the team for a few years.
Let's use CBS's mock draft (Rob Rang's) and randomly put a bust on 14 of the 32 players. Limit your expectations peoples!
KC: Geno Smith - BUST
JAX: Damontre Moore
OAK: Bjoern Werner
PHI: Luke Joeckel
DET: Barkevious Mingo
CLE: Jarvis Jones - BUST
ARI: Matt Barkley - BUST
BUF: Tyler Wilson - BUST
NYJ: Star Lotulelei
TEN: Sheldon Richardson
SD: Eric Fisher - BUST
MIA: Keenan Allen
TB: Dee Milliner - BUST
CAR: Sharrif Floyd - BUST
NO: Ezekiel Ansah - BUST
STL: Chance Warmack
PIT: John Jenkins
DAL: Kawann Short - BUST
NYG: Zach Ertz - BUST
CHI: Lane Johnson
CIN: Alec Ogletree - BUST
STL: Kenny Vaccaro - BUST
MIN: Cordarelle Patterson
IND: Desmond Trufant
SEA: Alex Okafor - BUST
GB: DJ Fluker - BUST
HOU: Tavon Austin
DEN: Johnathan Hankins
NE: Matt Elam
ATL: Dion Jordan
SF: Jonathan Cooper
BAL: Manti Te'O
What I've learned is that most of these "busts" are people who get hyped into the 1st round, by either their athleticism, combine performances, or other various reasons. The best thing to avoid from drafting a bust is solely looking at footage, game tape.
Jarvis Jones might suck ass at the combine, but his production is uncomparable, and if there were anyone I would say wouldn't be a bust in the 1st round it would be him (Unless that spinal stitosis shortens his career). Another safe prospect in my eyes is Chance Warmack.
If I had to pick a bust in the 1st round, it would be Dion Jordan. He had surgery this offseason that many people haven't heard about, and he's getting hyped up because of his size and athleticism. Is his production really that great?
Here is a very nice read on 1st round average pro-bowl rate, average length of a 1st rounder's career, and average year as a starter. These statistics are from the 1st rounds of 1999-2004.
Can you believe that 17% of 1st round picks only start 1 year in their entire career? 28% only start 3 years in their career. I consider if you start less than 4-5 years in your career as a first round draft pick, then you are probably a bust. That means around 45% of 1st round picks end up being disapointments to being flat out busts. That means about 14 draft picks this year will be busts and pretty much never make a pro-bowl and at the best only be a starter on the team for a few years.
Let's use CBS's mock draft (Rob Rang's) and randomly put a bust on 14 of the 32 players. Limit your expectations peoples!
KC: Geno Smith - BUST
JAX: Damontre Moore
OAK: Bjoern Werner
PHI: Luke Joeckel
DET: Barkevious Mingo
CLE: Jarvis Jones - BUST
ARI: Matt Barkley - BUST
BUF: Tyler Wilson - BUST
NYJ: Star Lotulelei
TEN: Sheldon Richardson
SD: Eric Fisher - BUST
MIA: Keenan Allen
TB: Dee Milliner - BUST
CAR: Sharrif Floyd - BUST
NO: Ezekiel Ansah - BUST
STL: Chance Warmack
PIT: John Jenkins
DAL: Kawann Short - BUST
NYG: Zach Ertz - BUST
CHI: Lane Johnson
CIN: Alec Ogletree - BUST
STL: Kenny Vaccaro - BUST
MIN: Cordarelle Patterson
IND: Desmond Trufant
SEA: Alex Okafor - BUST
GB: DJ Fluker - BUST
HOU: Tavon Austin
DEN: Johnathan Hankins
NE: Matt Elam
ATL: Dion Jordan
SF: Jonathan Cooper
BAL: Manti Te'O
What I've learned is that most of these "busts" are people who get hyped into the 1st round, by either their athleticism, combine performances, or other various reasons. The best thing to avoid from drafting a bust is solely looking at footage, game tape.
Jarvis Jones might suck ass at the combine, but his production is uncomparable, and if there were anyone I would say wouldn't be a bust in the 1st round it would be him (Unless that spinal stitosis shortens his career). Another safe prospect in my eyes is Chance Warmack.
If I had to pick a bust in the 1st round, it would be Dion Jordan. He had surgery this offseason that many people haven't heard about, and he's getting hyped up because of his size and athleticism. Is his production really that great?