Post by Juggs on Feb 15, 2013 21:10:50 GMT -5
Hello! I've been very busy getting into college, and I finally have time to goof off again. YAHOO!!!!!
1. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, LT, Texas A&M.
I don't like this pick. Joeckel is the best player available, but I think the Chiefs would be better off upgrading to Geno Smith at QB. The Chiefs need dramatic improvement, and one LT won't do that especially since he will just replace Brandon Albert. With a #1 pick, staying the same should not be one's objective.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah.
Lotulelei is being overlooked because of low production senior year. He played for fucking Utah people what do you expect? When he's in shorts at the combine he's going to blow away Jacksonville scouts, who will be happy to avoid the risk of Jarvis Jones at #2. I also think Smith would be the better pick, but it won't happen.
3. Oakland Raiders: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia.
I suspect that the Raiders will jump on Smith at #3 for a few reasons. The greatest one is that the AFC West is a weak division, and it might be weak enough for the Raiders to make a playoff run. Carson Palmer won't give them that, so my money is on Smith here. WalterFootball lastest mock says the Raiders have "taken a liking to him".
4. Philadelphia Eagles: Eric Fisher, LT, Central Michigan
This is the worst possible case scenario for the Eagles. They would love Joeckel, Lotulelei, or Smith, but they get stuck with their 4th choice. Philly had an awful line, and upgrading it is the priority. Fisher is flying up draft boards right now, and this is his ceiling.
5. Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
I don't like this pick either. Every year where there is not a dominant CB prospect (Peterson, Revis, etc.), one gets slotted in the top 5 because of need. Last years most sure pick was Claiborne to the Bucs at #5, which I disputed the whole year. The cowboys took him there with mixed results. I think Milliner is worse than Claiborne, and he's heading to a much weaker secondary.
6. Cleveland Browns: Bjorn Werner, DE, Florida State.
Most people have Werner off the board to #2 at Jacksonville, but that's because Lotulelei hasn't dominated the combine yet. After Jacksonville passes on the German vunderlad, he'll probably fall to the Browns, who desperately need another defensive weapon. The Browns are at high likelihood to trade this pick if Werner isn't here.
7. Arizona Cardinals: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
The Cardinals will take the best lineman available. Privy to the knowledge of most, Warmack is the best lineman in the entire draft, and the Cardinals will score a perennial pro-bowler at guard here. This seems like worst case for the Cards, but it will work out.
8. Buffalo Bills: Mike Glennon, QB, North Carolina State
Glennon is the underrated prospect of the class. He has the ability to be a top ten QB, and he will be a dramatic improvement over Fitzpatrick. to put him in perspective, I grade him higher than I did Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, or Jake Locker (all went at 8 or higher) when they entered the draft. It's a risk to be sure; it's a good one.
9. New York Jets: Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
Annnndddddd here we have an example of a bad risk. Wilson is a great talent, but their are not enough pieces to support a rookie QB in New York right now. The obvious picks here, Mingo, Jones, Ansah, Patterson, are being passed over to save the new GM from a one and done career.
10. Tennessee Titans: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
Tennessee's defense played poorly last year, but it has a lot of great talent. Adding Moore with Kemarion Wimbley and a great young LB core gives the Titans a very solid front seven. Moore will probably start rotationaly at LE with Derrick Morgan, and he might even see time at 4-3 OLB on running downs.
11. San Diego Chargers: Johnathon Cooper, G/T, North Carolina
Cooper is flying up the board right now because of his speed and lateral quickness. I'm not set on Lane Johnson and there is not a talent at tackle worth taking at #11. San Diego can protect Rivers and maybe save Ryan Mathews from bust status with this pick.
12. Indianapolis Colts (via Phins): Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
The colts will be earning plenty of complementary picks, so they have ample opportunity to move up. No pick makes obvious sense for Miami, and Mingo won't fall much further, so look for the Colts to snag him up. They will lose their first round pick, and undisclosed others for just this selection. I originally mocked this BEFORE they lost Freeney. I'll take those cookies now.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Who is Lane Johnson? I'll tell you who he isn't; the third best tackle available. However; with his stock flying up after the senior bowl (overrated importance) Tampa will look for him to replace either Penn or Demar Dotson, at least one of whom will be leaving soon.
14. Carolina Panthers: Johnathon Banks, CB, Mississippi State
The Panthers really need a DT, but they have proven they take the BPA last year when they smartly chose Luke Kuechly even though it wasn't a need. Banks is probably the top corner in the draft, and the Panthers need help everywhere on defense.
15. New Orleans Saints: Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia
Jones is the riskiest pick in the entire draft. He is #1 in terms of production and upside, but his spinal injury makes him a likely bust. I expect that Saints offense to be much better in 2013, and so they will focus on the pass rush with the 15th pick.
16. St. Louis Rams: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
St. Louis needs O-line help, but they have the Redskins first round pick, and the price isn't right to reach for now. The Rams will get a great safety in Vaccaro and they will look for line help later.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Manti T'eo, ILB, Notre Dame
I had Ogletree here, but I doubt the Steelers will take him so high after the recent DUI incident. Other than the scandal, T'eo is a class act, and he will have a chance to reshape his image at the combine interviews.
18. Dallas Cowboys: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Jay Ratliff was arrested for DUI, and Defensive Tackle has suddenly become a need for the Cowboys. They have to look at Sheldon Richardson to fit their new 4-3 alignment.
19. New York Giants: Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU
New York can fill a giant need at the position with an underrated talent. Many have Minter pegged as the best ILB in the class above stars with name recognition.
20. Chicago Bears: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Alshon Jeffry and Devin Hester have not worked out as WR porspects so far. Johnny Knox is likely going to be gone through free agency, and the Bears offense wasn't explosive enough last season. Catching the drafts best receiver at #20 is a major steal.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Alex Okafor, DE, Texas.
Cincy is going to take the best defensive player available. Okafor has been climbing boards and experts expect him to have a big combine. Cincinnati is going to have one fearsome defense.
22. St. Louis Rams: D.J. Fluker, T, Alabama
The Rams absolutely need a lineman here, and they're making a slight reach at #22 for Fluker. That said, the Rams face three great defenses in the NFC West where winning division games has historically equaled a playoff berth.
23. Minnesota Vikings: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
Percy Harvin is probably going to be wearing a color other than purple next season (okay i suppose the Ravens haha), and the Vikings need to replace their deep threat. DT is their biggest need, but there is no good 4-3 option here.
24. Miami Dolphins (via Colts): Keenan Allen, WR, Cal
Brian Hartiline is a likely cap casualty, and after him, the depth chart is..... well.... it isn't. The phins need to take lineman in the upcoming rounds.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Tyler Eiffert, TE, Stanford
What is the one peice missing from the Seahawks attack? One tall playmaker to maximize Russel Wilson's abilities. Eiffert will plug in and be an instant starter for Seattle.
26. Green Bay Packers: Eric Reid, S, LSU
The Packers play in a division with some of the leagues best secondaries. As of the day of this writing, Charles Woodson has been cut, so it makes sense for the hard hitting Tiger defenseman to take the Lambeau leap.
27. Houston Texans: Johnathon Hankins, 3-4 DT, Ohio State
Hankins ends his free-fall in Houston, who will be happy to pick him up. The Texans don't have any glaring needs other than QB (JK), so it makes sense for them to take the best player left available.
28. Denver Broncos: Xavier Rhodes, CB, FSU
Denver's CB situation is pretty bad. Google the meme: "Denver safety calls for fair catch". Bailey is done and they are probably losing Tony Carter in free agency.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (from pats): Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Since all of the remaining teams are set at QB, and their are a plethora of late 1st round grade QBs, it is certain the Pats will play highest bidder here and get a great deal from Jacksonville. Barkley is head and shoulders above the rest of the available QBs, and Jacksonville should move up to get him. Gabbert isn't the answer for them, and neither is Chad Henne.
30. Atlanta Falcons: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
The Falcons grab their homegrown linebacker at a steal for his talent. The big asterisk facing this pick is the DUI, but Ogletree is a smart kid with a smart agent. Hopefully they can make this whole incident go away at combine interviews.
31. San Fransisco 49ers: Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
Jordan's stock has been plummeting, and the 49ers add yet another speed rusher who will further open up lanes for a talented pass rush. San Fransisco is at high likelihood of trading this to a QB needy team.
32. Baltimore Ravens: Ezekial Ansah, DE, BYU
Yet another player who took a rise, but is now receiving the bust label, the Ravens can take a chance on the Morman wonder (he's not really).
CHA CHA CHA CHA CHANGES:
Johnathon Cooper from #18 DAL to #11 SD
Sheldon Richardson from #23 MIN to #18 DAL
DeAndre Hopkins from #27 HOU to #23 MIN
Johnathon Hankins from #11 SD to #27 HOU
Alec Ogletree from #17 PIT to #30 ATL
Manti T'eo from #19 NYG to #17 PIT
Kevin Minter from second round to #19 NYG
1. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, LT, Texas A&M.
I don't like this pick. Joeckel is the best player available, but I think the Chiefs would be better off upgrading to Geno Smith at QB. The Chiefs need dramatic improvement, and one LT won't do that especially since he will just replace Brandon Albert. With a #1 pick, staying the same should not be one's objective.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah.
Lotulelei is being overlooked because of low production senior year. He played for fucking Utah people what do you expect? When he's in shorts at the combine he's going to blow away Jacksonville scouts, who will be happy to avoid the risk of Jarvis Jones at #2. I also think Smith would be the better pick, but it won't happen.
3. Oakland Raiders: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia.
I suspect that the Raiders will jump on Smith at #3 for a few reasons. The greatest one is that the AFC West is a weak division, and it might be weak enough for the Raiders to make a playoff run. Carson Palmer won't give them that, so my money is on Smith here. WalterFootball lastest mock says the Raiders have "taken a liking to him".
4. Philadelphia Eagles: Eric Fisher, LT, Central Michigan
This is the worst possible case scenario for the Eagles. They would love Joeckel, Lotulelei, or Smith, but they get stuck with their 4th choice. Philly had an awful line, and upgrading it is the priority. Fisher is flying up draft boards right now, and this is his ceiling.
5. Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
I don't like this pick either. Every year where there is not a dominant CB prospect (Peterson, Revis, etc.), one gets slotted in the top 5 because of need. Last years most sure pick was Claiborne to the Bucs at #5, which I disputed the whole year. The cowboys took him there with mixed results. I think Milliner is worse than Claiborne, and he's heading to a much weaker secondary.
6. Cleveland Browns: Bjorn Werner, DE, Florida State.
Most people have Werner off the board to #2 at Jacksonville, but that's because Lotulelei hasn't dominated the combine yet. After Jacksonville passes on the German vunderlad, he'll probably fall to the Browns, who desperately need another defensive weapon. The Browns are at high likelihood to trade this pick if Werner isn't here.
7. Arizona Cardinals: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
The Cardinals will take the best lineman available. Privy to the knowledge of most, Warmack is the best lineman in the entire draft, and the Cardinals will score a perennial pro-bowler at guard here. This seems like worst case for the Cards, but it will work out.
8. Buffalo Bills: Mike Glennon, QB, North Carolina State
Glennon is the underrated prospect of the class. He has the ability to be a top ten QB, and he will be a dramatic improvement over Fitzpatrick. to put him in perspective, I grade him higher than I did Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, or Jake Locker (all went at 8 or higher) when they entered the draft. It's a risk to be sure; it's a good one.
9. New York Jets: Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
Annnndddddd here we have an example of a bad risk. Wilson is a great talent, but their are not enough pieces to support a rookie QB in New York right now. The obvious picks here, Mingo, Jones, Ansah, Patterson, are being passed over to save the new GM from a one and done career.
10. Tennessee Titans: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
Tennessee's defense played poorly last year, but it has a lot of great talent. Adding Moore with Kemarion Wimbley and a great young LB core gives the Titans a very solid front seven. Moore will probably start rotationaly at LE with Derrick Morgan, and he might even see time at 4-3 OLB on running downs.
11. San Diego Chargers: Johnathon Cooper, G/T, North Carolina
Cooper is flying up the board right now because of his speed and lateral quickness. I'm not set on Lane Johnson and there is not a talent at tackle worth taking at #11. San Diego can protect Rivers and maybe save Ryan Mathews from bust status with this pick.
12. Indianapolis Colts (via Phins): Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
The colts will be earning plenty of complementary picks, so they have ample opportunity to move up. No pick makes obvious sense for Miami, and Mingo won't fall much further, so look for the Colts to snag him up. They will lose their first round pick, and undisclosed others for just this selection. I originally mocked this BEFORE they lost Freeney. I'll take those cookies now.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Who is Lane Johnson? I'll tell you who he isn't; the third best tackle available. However; with his stock flying up after the senior bowl (overrated importance) Tampa will look for him to replace either Penn or Demar Dotson, at least one of whom will be leaving soon.
14. Carolina Panthers: Johnathon Banks, CB, Mississippi State
The Panthers really need a DT, but they have proven they take the BPA last year when they smartly chose Luke Kuechly even though it wasn't a need. Banks is probably the top corner in the draft, and the Panthers need help everywhere on defense.
15. New Orleans Saints: Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia
Jones is the riskiest pick in the entire draft. He is #1 in terms of production and upside, but his spinal injury makes him a likely bust. I expect that Saints offense to be much better in 2013, and so they will focus on the pass rush with the 15th pick.
16. St. Louis Rams: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
St. Louis needs O-line help, but they have the Redskins first round pick, and the price isn't right to reach for now. The Rams will get a great safety in Vaccaro and they will look for line help later.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Manti T'eo, ILB, Notre Dame
I had Ogletree here, but I doubt the Steelers will take him so high after the recent DUI incident. Other than the scandal, T'eo is a class act, and he will have a chance to reshape his image at the combine interviews.
18. Dallas Cowboys: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Jay Ratliff was arrested for DUI, and Defensive Tackle has suddenly become a need for the Cowboys. They have to look at Sheldon Richardson to fit their new 4-3 alignment.
19. New York Giants: Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU
New York can fill a giant need at the position with an underrated talent. Many have Minter pegged as the best ILB in the class above stars with name recognition.
20. Chicago Bears: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Alshon Jeffry and Devin Hester have not worked out as WR porspects so far. Johnny Knox is likely going to be gone through free agency, and the Bears offense wasn't explosive enough last season. Catching the drafts best receiver at #20 is a major steal.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Alex Okafor, DE, Texas.
Cincy is going to take the best defensive player available. Okafor has been climbing boards and experts expect him to have a big combine. Cincinnati is going to have one fearsome defense.
22. St. Louis Rams: D.J. Fluker, T, Alabama
The Rams absolutely need a lineman here, and they're making a slight reach at #22 for Fluker. That said, the Rams face three great defenses in the NFC West where winning division games has historically equaled a playoff berth.
23. Minnesota Vikings: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
Percy Harvin is probably going to be wearing a color other than purple next season (okay i suppose the Ravens haha), and the Vikings need to replace their deep threat. DT is their biggest need, but there is no good 4-3 option here.
24. Miami Dolphins (via Colts): Keenan Allen, WR, Cal
Brian Hartiline is a likely cap casualty, and after him, the depth chart is..... well.... it isn't. The phins need to take lineman in the upcoming rounds.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Tyler Eiffert, TE, Stanford
What is the one peice missing from the Seahawks attack? One tall playmaker to maximize Russel Wilson's abilities. Eiffert will plug in and be an instant starter for Seattle.
26. Green Bay Packers: Eric Reid, S, LSU
The Packers play in a division with some of the leagues best secondaries. As of the day of this writing, Charles Woodson has been cut, so it makes sense for the hard hitting Tiger defenseman to take the Lambeau leap.
27. Houston Texans: Johnathon Hankins, 3-4 DT, Ohio State
Hankins ends his free-fall in Houston, who will be happy to pick him up. The Texans don't have any glaring needs other than QB (JK), so it makes sense for them to take the best player left available.
28. Denver Broncos: Xavier Rhodes, CB, FSU
Denver's CB situation is pretty bad. Google the meme: "Denver safety calls for fair catch". Bailey is done and they are probably losing Tony Carter in free agency.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (from pats): Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Since all of the remaining teams are set at QB, and their are a plethora of late 1st round grade QBs, it is certain the Pats will play highest bidder here and get a great deal from Jacksonville. Barkley is head and shoulders above the rest of the available QBs, and Jacksonville should move up to get him. Gabbert isn't the answer for them, and neither is Chad Henne.
30. Atlanta Falcons: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
The Falcons grab their homegrown linebacker at a steal for his talent. The big asterisk facing this pick is the DUI, but Ogletree is a smart kid with a smart agent. Hopefully they can make this whole incident go away at combine interviews.
31. San Fransisco 49ers: Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
Jordan's stock has been plummeting, and the 49ers add yet another speed rusher who will further open up lanes for a talented pass rush. San Fransisco is at high likelihood of trading this to a QB needy team.
32. Baltimore Ravens: Ezekial Ansah, DE, BYU
Yet another player who took a rise, but is now receiving the bust label, the Ravens can take a chance on the Morman wonder (he's not really).
CHA CHA CHA CHA CHANGES:
Johnathon Cooper from #18 DAL to #11 SD
Sheldon Richardson from #23 MIN to #18 DAL
DeAndre Hopkins from #27 HOU to #23 MIN
Johnathon Hankins from #11 SD to #27 HOU
Alec Ogletree from #17 PIT to #30 ATL
Manti T'eo from #19 NYG to #17 PIT
Kevin Minter from second round to #19 NYG