Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2012 13:46:22 GMT -5
This was a post by a guy named Brett Kollman who claims to work for NFL Network on SBNation.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"For the last two to three months I’ve been putting together a “draft compendium” of sorts on excel where I keep my own rankings for players based on position, strengths, weaknesses, scheme fits etc. On top of that I also keep team needs, future free agents, cap numbers, and draft tendencies of GM’s that I know won’t be fired this coming monday morning. These rankings were built on about 300 hours of total tape study since the start of October of both college prospects and pro teams alike to get an understanding of how certain prospects will fit with certain teams (yes, I have no life. I work at NFL network, and generally when I get home from ten hours of straight football I do another 4-5 hours of tape study a night. This sport is pretty much all I do, as sad as that sounds, but I love it anyway).
My personal rankings don’t necessarily fit with most mocks out there because I tend to value actual football skills more than just “He’s 5-11” (I’m looking at you, Mel Kiper), but I like to think that at the end of the day they make sense. I haven’t dug into today’s games yet, but before I do I wanted to give you all a preview of a week long mock-draft event that we will be doing over at battleredblog sometime during the playoffs. I’m shooting for doing it either during the bye week (if the Texans do end up getting a bye week that is) or during pro bowl week when nobody has anything to talk about. Every day I’ll be posting 5-6 picks with detailed breakdowns about the players chosen as well as the schemes and personnel groupings of the team that is choosing them. If you know my weekly columns at BRB “Rookie Review” and “The Film Room”, you will probably understand when I say that these daily posts will be long and full of very, very detailed breakdowns of mechanics, schemes, and little nuances about individual players that most mocks just don’t really go in to. My goal with this project is not to just throw a dart at a board full of names and give vague, generic scout-speak about why certain players are “reaches” or “steals”, but rather explain why these players fit where they are going and why they will be successful in their (fake) future homes. I want our readers to come away feeling like they learned something and generally got a lot out of the 100+ pages this mock is going to end up being, so hopefully you all will join us when this goes down in a couple of weeks.
With that said, here’s a preview of my latest mock. It will likely change by the time the week long mockapalooza happens due to shifting draft order and what not. Also, just a side note: I’m factoring in trades into my mock. I feel like it is more likely that we see a butt load of trades all up and down the draft board in April than not seeing any at all, so what’s the point in mocking if I don’t try to make it at least semi-realistic?
1) Cardinals: Luke Joeckel – I have a hunch that the Cardinals are officially desperate for an offensive line. Lindley, Kolb, and Skelton are all disasters but even if they did draft a young quarterback prospect it is highly unlikely they will succeed simply because nobody is around to protect them. I think Arizona throws down the gauntlet and hops over Philly to grab the best left tackle in the class. It’s what I would do.
2) Jaguars: Dion Jordan – What looks like a wide receiver, hits like a safety, covers like a corner, and pass rushes like a defensive end? Dion Jordan, that’s what, and he’s going to change the NFL. I don’t think he is best suited to be a DE in the NFL. Sure, he could probably do the job admirably, but what I really think he would excel at is the SOLB position in a 4-3 front. In the Jags 4-3 defense the SOLB has responsibility to cover the tight end in pass coverage as well as rushing the passer from a standing up 7-technique. Dion Jordan is of course talented enough to beat almost every tight end in the league in single blocking on the edge, but he is also tall, fast, and athletic enough to take elite “receiver” tight ends in man to man press coverage at the line. The new “in” thing to do is to put big TE’s in the slot and dare linebackers to cover them and it’s darn near unstoppable considering the typical height-weight-speed build of most 4-3 OLB’s is nowhere near capable of covering a 6-6 260 lbs gazelle that can run a 4.50 forty yard dash. It just ain’t happening…that is unless you also have a 6-6 OLB that can run even faster and jump even higher. The Jaguars need a pass rush badly, and Jordan can provide that in spades, but nobody says that he can’t also lock down Owen Daniels, Coby Fleener, and Jared Cook any time they decide to run one of those drive-extending seam routes on third a long. Dion Jordan is quite literally the “anti-tight end”, and by the end of his rookie year every team in the NFL is going to want someone just like him.
3) Raiders: Star Lotulelei – Both of the Raiders starting DT’s are out the door this off season for one reason or another, and while Oakland’s secondary does need addressing, the defensive line is about to be in even bigger trouble. Lotulelei is not only the best player on the board, but also fills Oakland’s biggest need.
4) Eagles: Eric Fisher – I’m not sure why people are down on Fisher. So he doesn’t play elite competition every week, who cares? When I look at Fisher I see a football player, and a darn good one at that. His hands are excellent, he never punches too early or too aggressively, his feet are active and quick, he is strong in the run game, and quite frankly he’s just all around dominant. Just because he perfectly counters a dip-and-rip against unranked teams doesn’t mean he will suddenly forget how to do it against Alabama or Notre Dame. Talent is talent, and this guy has boatloads of it. In terms of technique blending with physical tools he is the second best tackle on my board…by a lot.
5) Titans: Manti Te’o – The Titans biggest need is safety, but there isn’t a safety this year that is so far away better than everybody else that you can’t justify trying to get one in the third round. With how much great-but-not-elite depth at safety there is this year it isn’t hard to imagine just one of them slipping far enough to make it worth it to trade Tennessee’s first and second round picks to Detroit to grab another position of need, MLB. Colin McCarthy had a good rookie season in 2011, but health problems are a concern and even when he was on the field his play was underwhelming at best. Te’o is a slam dunk pick for an organization that absolutely needs a slam dunk pick right now. The Titans defense has no direction, no leadership, and is in desperate need of someone to lead this organization out of the depths and back into the national conversation. If only there was a Heisman-quality leader of men in this year’s draft class that could do just that. Oh wait…there is.
6) Bills: Matt Barkley – I remember when Barkley and I were both sixteen. I was on the sideline of the annual Mater Dei (our high school)/Servite game. We were backed up in our own end zone, and Servite was licking their chops. Barkley dropped back to pass and scanned the field, but his protection broke almost immediately. With a stunting defensive tackle hanging around his legs, Barkley flicked a pass forty yards (while falling down mind you) down the seam to hit his cousin in stride for a 97 yard touch down. Later on in the game he hit his cousin again for a 60 yarder on a rope. Our senior year I witnessed that man throw a football over 80 yards in a skills competition. I have no idea where this “lack of arm strength” criticism has come from over the last four years, but I assure you he can make every throw in the route tree. Hell, he’s done it since before he had a driver’s permit.
7) Browns: Jarvis Jones – Jones is too good a player to pass up here. The Browns need a pass rush and a new weak side OLB, which he can easily be in a 4-3. This works for everyone.
8) Chiefs: Geno Smith – Who says you need to pick at first overall to get a quarterback that is already better than Matt Cassel? Chiefs got what they wanted; Cards got what they wanted. Win win.
9) Lions: Bjeorn Werner – Kyle Vanden Bosch is getting up there in years and has had a huge decline in productivity this season. Werner is an immensely talented pure 4-3 DE that can come in and give the Lions pass rush a much needed boost. A lot of people would argue for a corner here, but between Milliner, Banks, Rhodes, and Ryan all being worthy of selection in the first, at least one of them will end up falling to the top of the second. If things get desperate Detroit can always parlay their two high 2nd round picks to get back into the first and grab the corner they want.
10) Chargers: Dee Milliner – The Chargers need a corner to replace Quintin Jammer immediately. Milliner isn’t the best corner when it comes handling whip routes from slot receivers, but if you need a deep threat locked down on the side line he is your guy. Zone coverage is a little below average for him, but he is so darn good at pressing at the line and flipping his hips to settle in behind the stem of the receiver’s route that you almost don’t even need to put him in zone…like….ever. Eric Weddle, San Diego’s outstanding safety, will welcome the addition of Milliner because he won’t need to really worry about bracketing receivers deep and can freelance a little bit more to generate turnovers and make splash plays against unfortunate ball carriers. Expect an instant (and sizable) improvement to the Bolts’ pass defense with Bama’s latest defensive back product on the team.
11) Buccaneers: Johnathan Banks – We all know Tampa needs a corner, so I’ll just leave it at that.
12) Jets: Chase Thomas – I am telling you all right now that there is no way that Chase Thomas is not a top 15 pick. In terms of pure pass rushing skill, Thomas is the best in this class. Period. Stanford misused him for the vast majority of the season, but when they really started unleashing him towards the end of the year he was an absolute force of nature. There is nobody even close to him in the 2013 class in terms of technical development and pass rushing skill set. He has every move in the book in his repertoire and all of them are beautifully done play in and play out. Clubs, swims, bulls, spins, push/pulls, dip-and-rips – he has everything and he USES everything. He was absolutely unbelievable to watch against UCLA twice in a row to close the year, and I highly recommend watching his upcoming bowl game to get a glimpse at just how disruptive he can be. He falls behind Jones and Jordan overall because he isn’t the best in coverage (he’s decent, at best), but if you are looking for a weak side OLB in a 3-4 to absolutely embarrass whatever running back is assigned to block him, Thomas is your guy. If Stanford used him as a rush linebacker all season I have no doubt in my mind he could have cracked 15-16 sacks. With the ridiculously talented Muhammed Wilkerson drawing double teams right next to him on every snap, the Jets pass rush is about to get a whole lot nastier.
13) Panthers: Kawann Short – It’s no secret that the Panthers need a DT, and Short is a prospect that I expect to shoot up draft boards as people really start to dig into his tape. Out of every interior defensive linemen in this class, Short easily has the best hands. Unlike a lot of big guys up front that rely on pure size and power to get the job done, Short has a cunning about him that makes him nigh unblockable. Sure he’s got speed and strength to punch through a double team and meet a ball carrier in the backfield, but he’s also very adept in a Geno Atkins sort of way to bait linemen into punching early and then throwing a devastating swim move behind their back shoulder. He is very, very quick to disarm jabs as he crosses the face of his blocker, and his technique is sound against the run too. He’s more than just a stick-your-arm-out-and-hope-you-catch-him kind of defender, he’s a spin-out-of-a-block-and-get-a-strip kind of defender. Purdue lets him play a single gap rather than doubling up on the A and B gaps in run defense, and he does it very, very well. Along with Carolina’s great DE duo and stellar rookie MLB to cover his back, you’ll see Short in a lot of NFC south backfields for years to come.
14) Steelers: Ezekiel Ansah – There’s just something about watching Ansah on tape that makes you say “wow”. He’s violent, physical, and just an incredible athlete to watch. As a DE a lot of people compare him to Jason Pierre-Paul, but I think of him more as a Demarcus Ware. He’s simply too fast, too strong, and too physically devastating to leave alone with a tight end or running back. I’m not sure how he is in coverage because he didn’t drop back nearly enough, but he is so darn athletic that I wouldn’t put it past him to eventually be really, really good at that too. I weep for the health of all AFC North quarterbacks.
15) Dolphins: Justin Hunter – Wide receiver this year is pretty much all about preference. I personally like Justin Hunter. He’s got a pro-ready combination of size, speed, and route running ability coming off a bad knee injury that makes me think that at full health he can become a great number one target for Ryan Tannehill. He might not be a Revis-beater, but nobody really is. All the Dolphins need is someone who can get by Devin freakin’ McCourty. Justin Hunter can do that.
16) Saints: Sheldon Richardson – Yikes, where do you start with the Saints defense? There isn’t really a position group that they don’t need help at, so they might as well start up front. Sheldon Richardson is an all around gifted talent that I liken to Fletcher Cox from a year ago. He doesn’t quite have the power or Lotulelei or quite the technical prowess of Short, but holy crap is he explosive. He will being an instant upgrade to a Saints defense that is in the midst of a major rebuilding project.
17) Rams: Jake Matthews – I prefer Matthews to Lewan (if he comes out) simply because he is a much better pass protector. The Rams need to protect Sam Bradford, and have neglected offensive line for far too long. That ends today.
18) Cowboys: Chance Warmack – The Boys’ interior line was a mess this year. Warmack is the best guard in this class and will give Tony Romo a huge sigh of relief.
19) Giants: Sam Montgomery – Osi is about to be gone (probably), and Justin Tuck just hasn’t got it done the last couple of years. Sam Montgomery will help a formerly vaunted defensive line recover their form.
20) Bears: Taylor Lewan – I am not encouraged by Lewan’s sometimes shaky pass protection, but his run blocking is superb. I am convinced that the Bears go after a left tackle like Jake Long or Brandon Albert and then supplement that with Lewan as a right tackle. It wouldn’t fix all of their problems, but it would certainly help.
21) Bengals: Kevin Minter – Rey Maualuga has been underwhelming this season to say the least, and Cincy needs an insurance policy against his apparent regression (he has way more missed tackles and passes given up than any MLB should). In the mean time, if Maualuga is retained (his contract expires after the season), Minter can fill in immediately on the weak side and help turn the Bengals already ascending defense into a top unit in the NFL. Tough, instinctive, and as sure a tackler as you’ll find anyway, Minter can effectively lock down the backside of any running lane and make splash plays in the backfield with his great interior blitzing abilities. It’s a safe pick, but a GREAT safe pick.
22) Vikings: Keenan Allen – Again, WR’s this year are down to personal preference. Keenan Allen is a great down field threat that also has excellent run after the catch abilities. He will complement Percy Harvin very well if he stays in Minnesota.
23) Colts: Barrett Jones – The Colts interior line has been terrible this season, and they have to protect their young franchise quarterback in the future, especially with interior enforcers like J.J. Watt, Antontio Smith, Carl Klug, and Jurrell Casey roaming around in the AFC South. Jones is a smart, versatile blocker that can win with physicality as much as he can win with technique. Luck’s parents send their thanks.
24) Seahawks: Terrance Williams – Russel Wilson is sensational, but he needs more weapons if the Seahawks want to have a chance against the NFC’s elite away from Seattle. Williams might just be the most dangerous deep threat in this class. Lucky for him, Wilson’s got the arm to throw it to him.
25) Rams: Larry Warford – Wow. That’s all I gotta say about Larry Warford. He’s a huge specimen, but you would swear he moves like a man 50 lbs lighter than him. In the run game I think the appropriate term for him in “unstoppable force”, while in the pass game he might as well be termed “immovable object”. He moves well enough to run pulls, traps, whams, toss cracks, and all manner of power run play, and he will excel on either side of the line. My only criticism is that he isn’t the best blocker in space and he tends to overrun his man and takes poor angles more often then he should. He also is not very good at timing when it comes to cut blocking and could use some coaching on that. Overall, however, Sam Bradford will love that he finally has a guard that can handle interior monsters like Justin Smith and Calais Campbell.
26) Ravens: Alec Ogletree – Nobody replaces Ray Lewis, but Ogletree will certainly lessen the pain. A former safety, Ogletree is very good on pass coverage underneath the secondary and is athletic enough to take on ball carriers from sideline to sideline. He tackles violently and has a great pursuit speed on the back side of a play. I think to excel in the NFL he will need about 10 to 15 lbs of weight as he tends to get blocked out of power runs by guards very regularly, and he needs some bulk to be able to stand those up more often, but overall he is a very good prospect with a lot potential. I think playing behind guys like Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs will help him develop into a one of the better hybrid-ish linebackers that have to defend against receivers just as much as they have to blow up a fullback in this new era of the sport.
27) Niners: Matt Elam – The Niners could use a safety for depth’s sake. Dashon Goldson’s contract expires after this season, and Whitner’s expires the year after that. One or both of them could be gone by the end of next season, especially considering Whitner’s recent regression in basic tackling ability. Elam is a great insurance policy against both of them while the Niners are in a position of strength and don’t have any giant needs to fill. After all, when defense is the strength of the team they might as well keep it tuned up.
28) Packers: Dallas Thomas – TJ Lang and Marshall Newhouse should not be starters in the NFL .Period. Thomas could replace either one of them and it would be an upgrade.
29) Patriots: Logan Ryan – Logan Ryan is a very good cover corner, and it just so happens to be that the Patriots need a good cover corner. Talib might, and probably will be, gone at the end of the season after the rental is over and Devin McCourty is just really, really bad. Ryan could help bring stability to a secondary that has needed help for years.
30) Broncos: Johnathan Jenkins – The Broncos need an interior presence in base packages to help stop the run, and Jenkins is built just for that. He’s not a pass rushing phenom, but considering that the Broncos run only two down linemen in passing situations all he really needs to do (along with Wolfe) is just draw as many blockers from the 3-tech as humanly possible and give Dumervil and Miller room to work. That he can do, and do well.
31) Texans: Khaseem Greene – The Texans are desperate for an inside linebacker that can cover the pass and rush the passer besides Brian Cushing. Bradie James and Tim Dobbins are nowhere close to “good”, and Daryl Sharpton is just at the level of “not a liability”. Sharpton is great depth, and you could make the case for Dobbins being the best goal line run defender on the team, but what the Texans really need is a robin to Cushing’s batman. A guy who can be trusted against running backs and tight ends in space while Cushing Blitzes. A guy who can not only take on a fullback in pass protection, but beat him and get to the quarterback. A guy who can actually get a tackle behind the line of scrimmage every now and then. Khaseem Greene is that guy, and I hope with all my heart he is wearing deep steel blue come April.
32) Falcons Alex Okafor – The Falcons lucked out and still get a really, really good pass rusher despite picking dead last. John Abraham is still going strong, but he won’t be producing at a high level for much longer. Beyond that, Atlanta doesn’t really have anyone else besides Abraham that can put consistent pressure on the quarterback. Okafor will immediately help put a pep back into Mike Smith’s step with his great combination of size, power, and athleticism on the edge."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thoughts?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"For the last two to three months I’ve been putting together a “draft compendium” of sorts on excel where I keep my own rankings for players based on position, strengths, weaknesses, scheme fits etc. On top of that I also keep team needs, future free agents, cap numbers, and draft tendencies of GM’s that I know won’t be fired this coming monday morning. These rankings were built on about 300 hours of total tape study since the start of October of both college prospects and pro teams alike to get an understanding of how certain prospects will fit with certain teams (yes, I have no life. I work at NFL network, and generally when I get home from ten hours of straight football I do another 4-5 hours of tape study a night. This sport is pretty much all I do, as sad as that sounds, but I love it anyway).
My personal rankings don’t necessarily fit with most mocks out there because I tend to value actual football skills more than just “He’s 5-11” (I’m looking at you, Mel Kiper), but I like to think that at the end of the day they make sense. I haven’t dug into today’s games yet, but before I do I wanted to give you all a preview of a week long mock-draft event that we will be doing over at battleredblog sometime during the playoffs. I’m shooting for doing it either during the bye week (if the Texans do end up getting a bye week that is) or during pro bowl week when nobody has anything to talk about. Every day I’ll be posting 5-6 picks with detailed breakdowns about the players chosen as well as the schemes and personnel groupings of the team that is choosing them. If you know my weekly columns at BRB “Rookie Review” and “The Film Room”, you will probably understand when I say that these daily posts will be long and full of very, very detailed breakdowns of mechanics, schemes, and little nuances about individual players that most mocks just don’t really go in to. My goal with this project is not to just throw a dart at a board full of names and give vague, generic scout-speak about why certain players are “reaches” or “steals”, but rather explain why these players fit where they are going and why they will be successful in their (fake) future homes. I want our readers to come away feeling like they learned something and generally got a lot out of the 100+ pages this mock is going to end up being, so hopefully you all will join us when this goes down in a couple of weeks.
With that said, here’s a preview of my latest mock. It will likely change by the time the week long mockapalooza happens due to shifting draft order and what not. Also, just a side note: I’m factoring in trades into my mock. I feel like it is more likely that we see a butt load of trades all up and down the draft board in April than not seeing any at all, so what’s the point in mocking if I don’t try to make it at least semi-realistic?
1) Cardinals: Luke Joeckel – I have a hunch that the Cardinals are officially desperate for an offensive line. Lindley, Kolb, and Skelton are all disasters but even if they did draft a young quarterback prospect it is highly unlikely they will succeed simply because nobody is around to protect them. I think Arizona throws down the gauntlet and hops over Philly to grab the best left tackle in the class. It’s what I would do.
2) Jaguars: Dion Jordan – What looks like a wide receiver, hits like a safety, covers like a corner, and pass rushes like a defensive end? Dion Jordan, that’s what, and he’s going to change the NFL. I don’t think he is best suited to be a DE in the NFL. Sure, he could probably do the job admirably, but what I really think he would excel at is the SOLB position in a 4-3 front. In the Jags 4-3 defense the SOLB has responsibility to cover the tight end in pass coverage as well as rushing the passer from a standing up 7-technique. Dion Jordan is of course talented enough to beat almost every tight end in the league in single blocking on the edge, but he is also tall, fast, and athletic enough to take elite “receiver” tight ends in man to man press coverage at the line. The new “in” thing to do is to put big TE’s in the slot and dare linebackers to cover them and it’s darn near unstoppable considering the typical height-weight-speed build of most 4-3 OLB’s is nowhere near capable of covering a 6-6 260 lbs gazelle that can run a 4.50 forty yard dash. It just ain’t happening…that is unless you also have a 6-6 OLB that can run even faster and jump even higher. The Jaguars need a pass rush badly, and Jordan can provide that in spades, but nobody says that he can’t also lock down Owen Daniels, Coby Fleener, and Jared Cook any time they decide to run one of those drive-extending seam routes on third a long. Dion Jordan is quite literally the “anti-tight end”, and by the end of his rookie year every team in the NFL is going to want someone just like him.
3) Raiders: Star Lotulelei – Both of the Raiders starting DT’s are out the door this off season for one reason or another, and while Oakland’s secondary does need addressing, the defensive line is about to be in even bigger trouble. Lotulelei is not only the best player on the board, but also fills Oakland’s biggest need.
4) Eagles: Eric Fisher – I’m not sure why people are down on Fisher. So he doesn’t play elite competition every week, who cares? When I look at Fisher I see a football player, and a darn good one at that. His hands are excellent, he never punches too early or too aggressively, his feet are active and quick, he is strong in the run game, and quite frankly he’s just all around dominant. Just because he perfectly counters a dip-and-rip against unranked teams doesn’t mean he will suddenly forget how to do it against Alabama or Notre Dame. Talent is talent, and this guy has boatloads of it. In terms of technique blending with physical tools he is the second best tackle on my board…by a lot.
5) Titans: Manti Te’o – The Titans biggest need is safety, but there isn’t a safety this year that is so far away better than everybody else that you can’t justify trying to get one in the third round. With how much great-but-not-elite depth at safety there is this year it isn’t hard to imagine just one of them slipping far enough to make it worth it to trade Tennessee’s first and second round picks to Detroit to grab another position of need, MLB. Colin McCarthy had a good rookie season in 2011, but health problems are a concern and even when he was on the field his play was underwhelming at best. Te’o is a slam dunk pick for an organization that absolutely needs a slam dunk pick right now. The Titans defense has no direction, no leadership, and is in desperate need of someone to lead this organization out of the depths and back into the national conversation. If only there was a Heisman-quality leader of men in this year’s draft class that could do just that. Oh wait…there is.
6) Bills: Matt Barkley – I remember when Barkley and I were both sixteen. I was on the sideline of the annual Mater Dei (our high school)/Servite game. We were backed up in our own end zone, and Servite was licking their chops. Barkley dropped back to pass and scanned the field, but his protection broke almost immediately. With a stunting defensive tackle hanging around his legs, Barkley flicked a pass forty yards (while falling down mind you) down the seam to hit his cousin in stride for a 97 yard touch down. Later on in the game he hit his cousin again for a 60 yarder on a rope. Our senior year I witnessed that man throw a football over 80 yards in a skills competition. I have no idea where this “lack of arm strength” criticism has come from over the last four years, but I assure you he can make every throw in the route tree. Hell, he’s done it since before he had a driver’s permit.
7) Browns: Jarvis Jones – Jones is too good a player to pass up here. The Browns need a pass rush and a new weak side OLB, which he can easily be in a 4-3. This works for everyone.
8) Chiefs: Geno Smith – Who says you need to pick at first overall to get a quarterback that is already better than Matt Cassel? Chiefs got what they wanted; Cards got what they wanted. Win win.
9) Lions: Bjeorn Werner – Kyle Vanden Bosch is getting up there in years and has had a huge decline in productivity this season. Werner is an immensely talented pure 4-3 DE that can come in and give the Lions pass rush a much needed boost. A lot of people would argue for a corner here, but between Milliner, Banks, Rhodes, and Ryan all being worthy of selection in the first, at least one of them will end up falling to the top of the second. If things get desperate Detroit can always parlay their two high 2nd round picks to get back into the first and grab the corner they want.
10) Chargers: Dee Milliner – The Chargers need a corner to replace Quintin Jammer immediately. Milliner isn’t the best corner when it comes handling whip routes from slot receivers, but if you need a deep threat locked down on the side line he is your guy. Zone coverage is a little below average for him, but he is so darn good at pressing at the line and flipping his hips to settle in behind the stem of the receiver’s route that you almost don’t even need to put him in zone…like….ever. Eric Weddle, San Diego’s outstanding safety, will welcome the addition of Milliner because he won’t need to really worry about bracketing receivers deep and can freelance a little bit more to generate turnovers and make splash plays against unfortunate ball carriers. Expect an instant (and sizable) improvement to the Bolts’ pass defense with Bama’s latest defensive back product on the team.
11) Buccaneers: Johnathan Banks – We all know Tampa needs a corner, so I’ll just leave it at that.
12) Jets: Chase Thomas – I am telling you all right now that there is no way that Chase Thomas is not a top 15 pick. In terms of pure pass rushing skill, Thomas is the best in this class. Period. Stanford misused him for the vast majority of the season, but when they really started unleashing him towards the end of the year he was an absolute force of nature. There is nobody even close to him in the 2013 class in terms of technical development and pass rushing skill set. He has every move in the book in his repertoire and all of them are beautifully done play in and play out. Clubs, swims, bulls, spins, push/pulls, dip-and-rips – he has everything and he USES everything. He was absolutely unbelievable to watch against UCLA twice in a row to close the year, and I highly recommend watching his upcoming bowl game to get a glimpse at just how disruptive he can be. He falls behind Jones and Jordan overall because he isn’t the best in coverage (he’s decent, at best), but if you are looking for a weak side OLB in a 3-4 to absolutely embarrass whatever running back is assigned to block him, Thomas is your guy. If Stanford used him as a rush linebacker all season I have no doubt in my mind he could have cracked 15-16 sacks. With the ridiculously talented Muhammed Wilkerson drawing double teams right next to him on every snap, the Jets pass rush is about to get a whole lot nastier.
13) Panthers: Kawann Short – It’s no secret that the Panthers need a DT, and Short is a prospect that I expect to shoot up draft boards as people really start to dig into his tape. Out of every interior defensive linemen in this class, Short easily has the best hands. Unlike a lot of big guys up front that rely on pure size and power to get the job done, Short has a cunning about him that makes him nigh unblockable. Sure he’s got speed and strength to punch through a double team and meet a ball carrier in the backfield, but he’s also very adept in a Geno Atkins sort of way to bait linemen into punching early and then throwing a devastating swim move behind their back shoulder. He is very, very quick to disarm jabs as he crosses the face of his blocker, and his technique is sound against the run too. He’s more than just a stick-your-arm-out-and-hope-you-catch-him kind of defender, he’s a spin-out-of-a-block-and-get-a-strip kind of defender. Purdue lets him play a single gap rather than doubling up on the A and B gaps in run defense, and he does it very, very well. Along with Carolina’s great DE duo and stellar rookie MLB to cover his back, you’ll see Short in a lot of NFC south backfields for years to come.
14) Steelers: Ezekiel Ansah – There’s just something about watching Ansah on tape that makes you say “wow”. He’s violent, physical, and just an incredible athlete to watch. As a DE a lot of people compare him to Jason Pierre-Paul, but I think of him more as a Demarcus Ware. He’s simply too fast, too strong, and too physically devastating to leave alone with a tight end or running back. I’m not sure how he is in coverage because he didn’t drop back nearly enough, but he is so darn athletic that I wouldn’t put it past him to eventually be really, really good at that too. I weep for the health of all AFC North quarterbacks.
15) Dolphins: Justin Hunter – Wide receiver this year is pretty much all about preference. I personally like Justin Hunter. He’s got a pro-ready combination of size, speed, and route running ability coming off a bad knee injury that makes me think that at full health he can become a great number one target for Ryan Tannehill. He might not be a Revis-beater, but nobody really is. All the Dolphins need is someone who can get by Devin freakin’ McCourty. Justin Hunter can do that.
16) Saints: Sheldon Richardson – Yikes, where do you start with the Saints defense? There isn’t really a position group that they don’t need help at, so they might as well start up front. Sheldon Richardson is an all around gifted talent that I liken to Fletcher Cox from a year ago. He doesn’t quite have the power or Lotulelei or quite the technical prowess of Short, but holy crap is he explosive. He will being an instant upgrade to a Saints defense that is in the midst of a major rebuilding project.
17) Rams: Jake Matthews – I prefer Matthews to Lewan (if he comes out) simply because he is a much better pass protector. The Rams need to protect Sam Bradford, and have neglected offensive line for far too long. That ends today.
18) Cowboys: Chance Warmack – The Boys’ interior line was a mess this year. Warmack is the best guard in this class and will give Tony Romo a huge sigh of relief.
19) Giants: Sam Montgomery – Osi is about to be gone (probably), and Justin Tuck just hasn’t got it done the last couple of years. Sam Montgomery will help a formerly vaunted defensive line recover their form.
20) Bears: Taylor Lewan – I am not encouraged by Lewan’s sometimes shaky pass protection, but his run blocking is superb. I am convinced that the Bears go after a left tackle like Jake Long or Brandon Albert and then supplement that with Lewan as a right tackle. It wouldn’t fix all of their problems, but it would certainly help.
21) Bengals: Kevin Minter – Rey Maualuga has been underwhelming this season to say the least, and Cincy needs an insurance policy against his apparent regression (he has way more missed tackles and passes given up than any MLB should). In the mean time, if Maualuga is retained (his contract expires after the season), Minter can fill in immediately on the weak side and help turn the Bengals already ascending defense into a top unit in the NFL. Tough, instinctive, and as sure a tackler as you’ll find anyway, Minter can effectively lock down the backside of any running lane and make splash plays in the backfield with his great interior blitzing abilities. It’s a safe pick, but a GREAT safe pick.
22) Vikings: Keenan Allen – Again, WR’s this year are down to personal preference. Keenan Allen is a great down field threat that also has excellent run after the catch abilities. He will complement Percy Harvin very well if he stays in Minnesota.
23) Colts: Barrett Jones – The Colts interior line has been terrible this season, and they have to protect their young franchise quarterback in the future, especially with interior enforcers like J.J. Watt, Antontio Smith, Carl Klug, and Jurrell Casey roaming around in the AFC South. Jones is a smart, versatile blocker that can win with physicality as much as he can win with technique. Luck’s parents send their thanks.
24) Seahawks: Terrance Williams – Russel Wilson is sensational, but he needs more weapons if the Seahawks want to have a chance against the NFC’s elite away from Seattle. Williams might just be the most dangerous deep threat in this class. Lucky for him, Wilson’s got the arm to throw it to him.
25) Rams: Larry Warford – Wow. That’s all I gotta say about Larry Warford. He’s a huge specimen, but you would swear he moves like a man 50 lbs lighter than him. In the run game I think the appropriate term for him in “unstoppable force”, while in the pass game he might as well be termed “immovable object”. He moves well enough to run pulls, traps, whams, toss cracks, and all manner of power run play, and he will excel on either side of the line. My only criticism is that he isn’t the best blocker in space and he tends to overrun his man and takes poor angles more often then he should. He also is not very good at timing when it comes to cut blocking and could use some coaching on that. Overall, however, Sam Bradford will love that he finally has a guard that can handle interior monsters like Justin Smith and Calais Campbell.
26) Ravens: Alec Ogletree – Nobody replaces Ray Lewis, but Ogletree will certainly lessen the pain. A former safety, Ogletree is very good on pass coverage underneath the secondary and is athletic enough to take on ball carriers from sideline to sideline. He tackles violently and has a great pursuit speed on the back side of a play. I think to excel in the NFL he will need about 10 to 15 lbs of weight as he tends to get blocked out of power runs by guards very regularly, and he needs some bulk to be able to stand those up more often, but overall he is a very good prospect with a lot potential. I think playing behind guys like Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs will help him develop into a one of the better hybrid-ish linebackers that have to defend against receivers just as much as they have to blow up a fullback in this new era of the sport.
27) Niners: Matt Elam – The Niners could use a safety for depth’s sake. Dashon Goldson’s contract expires after this season, and Whitner’s expires the year after that. One or both of them could be gone by the end of next season, especially considering Whitner’s recent regression in basic tackling ability. Elam is a great insurance policy against both of them while the Niners are in a position of strength and don’t have any giant needs to fill. After all, when defense is the strength of the team they might as well keep it tuned up.
28) Packers: Dallas Thomas – TJ Lang and Marshall Newhouse should not be starters in the NFL .Period. Thomas could replace either one of them and it would be an upgrade.
29) Patriots: Logan Ryan – Logan Ryan is a very good cover corner, and it just so happens to be that the Patriots need a good cover corner. Talib might, and probably will be, gone at the end of the season after the rental is over and Devin McCourty is just really, really bad. Ryan could help bring stability to a secondary that has needed help for years.
30) Broncos: Johnathan Jenkins – The Broncos need an interior presence in base packages to help stop the run, and Jenkins is built just for that. He’s not a pass rushing phenom, but considering that the Broncos run only two down linemen in passing situations all he really needs to do (along with Wolfe) is just draw as many blockers from the 3-tech as humanly possible and give Dumervil and Miller room to work. That he can do, and do well.
31) Texans: Khaseem Greene – The Texans are desperate for an inside linebacker that can cover the pass and rush the passer besides Brian Cushing. Bradie James and Tim Dobbins are nowhere close to “good”, and Daryl Sharpton is just at the level of “not a liability”. Sharpton is great depth, and you could make the case for Dobbins being the best goal line run defender on the team, but what the Texans really need is a robin to Cushing’s batman. A guy who can be trusted against running backs and tight ends in space while Cushing Blitzes. A guy who can not only take on a fullback in pass protection, but beat him and get to the quarterback. A guy who can actually get a tackle behind the line of scrimmage every now and then. Khaseem Greene is that guy, and I hope with all my heart he is wearing deep steel blue come April.
32) Falcons Alex Okafor – The Falcons lucked out and still get a really, really good pass rusher despite picking dead last. John Abraham is still going strong, but he won’t be producing at a high level for much longer. Beyond that, Atlanta doesn’t really have anyone else besides Abraham that can put consistent pressure on the quarterback. Okafor will immediately help put a pep back into Mike Smith’s step with his great combination of size, power, and athleticism on the edge."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thoughts?